By Zhang Wei, Oilchem

Surging domestic supply occupies more worldwide with years

Domestic bisphenol A (BPA) has seen a spike during the last 14 years (see Figure 1). BPA capacity was less than 50 kt/a in 2020, but is forecast to have developed to 5 595 000 t/a in 2023, with capacity expanding by 11.3 times and compound growth rate of 20.5%. And increasing capacity also boosted supply, and BPA output in 2023 was 3 420 000 tons, up 9.1 times than of 2010, with compound growth rate of 18.5%. 

Figure 1 Development history of China's BPA industry

China only occupied 7% of worldwide BPA capacity in 2010, but may have held a half globally in 2023 (see Figure 2). China is now the biggest supplier of BPA, with the supply of Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Ruiheng New Material Co., Ltd., and Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd. leading the way.

Figure 2 The global capacity proportion of China’s BPA during 2010 to 2023

Supply-demand changing from short supply to oversupply

With the growth of China’s real estate, infrastructure, vehicles, electronic communications, 5G and new energy, the downstream epoxy resin and PC industries of BPA have developed rapidly, supporting the expansion of China’s BPA capacity and consumption. And BPA consumption has increased from 810 000 tons in 2010 to more than 3 400 000 tons in 2023 (see Figure 3). During these 14 years, consumption grew by 4.2 times and compound consumption growth rate arrived at 11.8%, much above the GDP average growth of 6.8%. 

Figure 3 China’s BPA self-sufficiency from 2010 to 2023

Fast-growing consumption drove domestic BPA self-sufficiency to rise. In 2011, China’s BPA self-sufficiency was around 40%, which is forecast to have attained 100% basically in 2023, making China’s BPA transform from short supply to oversupply.

Imports fluctuated, with import dependency falling yearly

Between 2010 and 2023, due to substantial demand growth and increased BPA localization in China, BPA imports displayed the trend of "increase-decline-growth-decline". China's dependency on BPA import in 2011 was around 60%, and subsequently showed a decline overall, notably after 2019, from 30% in 2019 to less than 5% in 2023 (see Figure 4).

Figure 4 China’s BPA import dependency from 2010 to 2023

China became a big BPA demander

From 2010 to 2023, China’s BPA consumption surged. In the last decade, Asia dominated BPA, downstream epoxy resin, new PC project investment, construction and launch globally, with China leading the way. And at the same time, the capacity of China’s epoxy resin grew by 2.4 times, and PC by 9.8 times, facilitating China’s BPA consumption to rise from 14% in 2020 to around 47% in 2023 (see Figure 5). According to global trade flows, China’s trade circulation during 2019 to 2022 accounted for 40% to 60% globally. With the recent surging supply of China’s BPA over the last 2 years, the trade flows have steadily reduced to 20%. 

Figure 5 The global consumption of China’s BPA from 2010 to 2023

The oversupply of China’s BPA in 2022 has emerged. And several sets of BPA equipment are scheduled to be built and launched. If everything goes as planned, BPA capacity in 2023 is expected to have exceeded 10 million tons, resulting in a more severe oversupply. During this period, it is necessary to implement “go global” strategy.