By Fu Xiangsheng, Vice Chairman of China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation
Planning ideology and current status of polymer materials
Owing to their excellent properties such as light weight, high strength, temperature resistance and corrosion resistance, polymer materials are extensively used in fields of high-end manufacturing, electronic information, communication/transportation, building energy conservation and aviation/spaceflight.
The “Planning Guidelines for the Development of the Petroleum and Chemical Industry during the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan Period” includes polymer materials in sectors for priority development as a strategic emerging industry and proposes clear-cut requirements on the innovation and development of polymer materials such as high-performance resins, high-performance rubbers, high-performance fibers and functional membrane materials. The readjustment and optimization of industrial structures is taken as the key to accelerate industrial transformation and upgrading and actively develop new materials such as high-end resins, biomass resins and special materials.
1. Synthetic resins
The total output of synthetic resins in China was 85.58 million tons in 2018, an increase of 4.2% over the previous year; the import amount was 29.955 million tons, being lower than 31.959 million tons in the previous year; the apparent consumption was 109 million tons. The basic status of 5 main general-purpose plastics was as follows. The capacity of polyethylene in China was 18.44 million t/a in 2018 and the output was 15.835 million tons, an increase of 13.3% over the previous year; the import amount was 14.025 million tons, an increase of 18.9% over the previous year; the apparent consumption was 27.816 million tons, an increase of 11.7% over the previous year; the import dependence was 49.6%. The total capacity of polypropylene was 24.50 million t/a, the output was 22.00 million tons and the capacity utilization rate was 89.8%; the import amount was 4.40 million tons; the apparent consumption was 26.40 million tons, an increase of 8.7% over the previous year. The capacity of polyvinyl chloride was 19.86 million t/a and the output was 18.739 million tons, an increase of 5.6% over the previous year; the import amount was 0.937 million tons and the export amount was 0.774 million tons; the apparent consumption was 18.90 million tons, an increase of 7.1% over the previous year. The output of polystyrene was 1.757 million tons; the import amount was 1.153 million tons; the apparent consumption was 2.589 million tons, an increase of 6.2% over the previous year. The output of ABS was 3.258 million tons; the import amount was 2.01 million tons, an increase of 12.5% over the previous year; the apparent consumption was 5.223 million tons, an increase of 4.5% over the previous year.
2. New Chemical materials
New Chemical materials usually refer to engineering plastics, specialty engineering plastics, high-performance fibers and functional membrane materials. Five main engineering plastics include polyamide, polyformaldehyde, polycarbonates, PBT and polyphenyl ether. Five specialty engineering plastics include polyphenyl thioether, polyimide, polysulfone and polyether ether ketone. Types of specialty engineering plastics have made an expansion in recent years and both varieties and properties are making constant upgrading. Owing to their lighter weight, more excellent performance and stronger functionality, new chemical materials have become indispensable important matching materials for the high-end manufacturing industry.
According to statistics in the “Report on the Development of the New Chemical Material Industry in China”, the output of new chemical materials in China was 18.94 million tons in 2017, the consumption was 29.30 million tons and the self-sufficiency rate was 64%. The output of engineering plastics was 2.71 million tons, the consumption was 4.47 million tons and the self-sufficiency rate was 61%. To be more specific, the capacity of polycarbonates reached 1.205 million t/a, the output was 0.65 million tons, the capacity utilization rate was 53.9%, the import amount was 1.417 million tons and the apparent consumption was 1.80 million tons. The capacity of polyformaldehyde was 0.47 million t/a, the output was 0.27 million tons and the capacity utilization rate was 57.4%. The output of functional membrane materials was around 0.30 million tons, the consumption was around 0.50 million tons and the self-sufficiency rate was 60%. The output of electronic chemicals was 0.45 million tons, the consumption was around 0.75 million tons and the self-sufficiency rate was 60%. The output of high-end polyolefins was 4.92 million tons, the consumption was around 10.49 million tons and the self-sufficiency rate was 46.9%. The output of polyurethane was 7.50 million tons, the consumption was 8.53 million tons and the self-sufficiency rate was 88%.
3. Synthetic rubbers
The output of synthetic rubbers in China was 5.59 million tons in 2018, an increase of 7.1% over the previous year; the import amount was 5.91 million tons, an increase of 1.2% over the previous year; the apparent consumption was 11.16 million tons and the import dependence was 49.9%. The import amount of ethylene propylene rubber was 1.734 million tons. The import amount of styrene butadiene rubber was 0.512 million tons. The import amount of butyl rubber was 0.251 million tons. The import amount of butadiene rubber was 0.194 million tons. The import amount of nitrile rubber was 0.14 million tons.
4. Synthetic fibers
Synthetic fibers have advantages of abrasion resistance, corrosion resistance and no washing shrinakge. The output of synthetic fibers has already surpassed the output of natural fibers. Synthetic fibers can not only be used in clothes but also in industrial sectors such as tire cords and cables/ropes. The capacity of ethylene glycol as synthetic fiber monomer was 10.63 million t/a, the output was 6.793 million tons and the capacity utilization rate was 64%; the import amount was 9.54 million tons; the apparent consumption was 16.334 million tons; the self-sufficiency rate was 41.6%. The capacity of PX was 13.79 million t/a, the output was 11.09 million tons and the capacity utilization rate was 75%; the import amount was 15.90 million tons, an increae of 9.9% over the previous year; the apparent consumption was 26.99 million tons; the self-suffciency rate was 41.1%.
Challenges and constraints in the sustainable development of polymer materials
1. The structural imbalance of “low-end surplus and high-end shortage” is acute
The petroleum and chemical industry has achieved outstanding achievements in the elimination of outdated capacities and the acceleration of transformation and upgrading in past 3 years. The structural imbalance of “low-end surplus and high-end shortage” has however made no fundamental changes. Basic general-purpose resins such as polyvinyl chloride, polystyrene and engineering plastics polyformaldehyde and PBT all present a state of surplus. High-end polymer materials such as metallocene polyolefins and other elastomers still have to be imported in great quantities to meet the market demand. The unfavorable trade balance in the petroleum and chemical industry reached as high as US$281.2 billion in 2018, a drastic increase of 42.5% over the previous year. The unfavorable treade balance of synthetic resins, synthetic rubbers and synthetic fiber monomers was US$56.7 billion, accounting for over 20% of the total. Vairieties with considerable import amount and unfavorable trade balance included the following. The import amount of polyethylene was 14.025 million tons, an increase of 18.9% over the previous year. Of the total, the import amount of HDPE was 6.73 million tons, an increase of 5.2% and the import amount of LLDPE was 4.367 million tons, an increase of 44.3%. The unfavorable trade balance of polyethylene was US$17.1 billion, an increase of 23.7% over the previous year. The unfavorable trade balance of polypropylene was US$3.7 billion, an increase of 8% over the previous year. The unfavorable trade balance of synthetic rubbers was US$8.82 billion, an increase of 5.9% over the previous year. Of the total, the unfavorable trade balance of ethylene propylene rubber was US$2.4 billion and the unfavorable trade balance of styrene butadiene rubber was US$0.9 billion. The unfavorable trade balance of polycarbonates was US$3.7 billion, an increase of 14.3% over the previous year. The unfavorable trade balance of polyamide was US$1.7 billion. The import amount of polyformaldehyde was around 0.34 million tons, an increase of 9.7% over the previous year. The import amount of polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) was 0.22 million tons, an increase of 15.7% over the previous year. The unfavorable trade balance of polyformaldehyde and the unfavorable trade balance of PMMA were both around US$0.6 billion.
Moreover, there are not many product brands and special materials. For example, metallocene polyethylene special resins, metallocene polymerized ethylene/α-olefin copolymers, metallocene homopolymerized polypropylene resins and high-performance polyolefin elastomers for high-end membranes, high-end special resins for automobiles, special resins for electronics/electrics and special resins for personal care and medical care only have few varieties and brands.
2. Constraints in key technologies and core technologies are still prominent
The most typical is the metallocene polymerization technology. The metallocene polymerization process has greater flexibility and higher controllability and is therefore extensively used in general-purpose plastics, elastomers and engineering plastics. It is a new process with the most rapid development in olefin polymerization. China started to organize national technical research in the 1990s. Through developments for over 20 years, Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd., Daqing Petrochemical Co., Ltd., Dushanzi Petrochemical Co., Ltd. and Shenyang Chemical Co., Ltd. have all gained product supply markets today, but commercialization scale and product brand can hardly meet the market demand. The self-sufficiency rate of metallocene polyolefins is less than 30%. Most representative production technologies for hexanedinitrile as major monomer of nylon 66 are the butadiene method from Invista and the acrylonitrile electrolytic dimerization method from Ascend. The capacity of nylon 66 in China was 0.43 million t/a in 2018, the output was 0.30 million tons and the apparent consumption was 0.50 million tons. The production of nylon 66 is however seriously constrained by hexanedinitrile. Nylon 66 producers have to purchase hexanedinitrile or hexanediamine from outside sources. Technologies for the production of membranes, no matter they are ion membranes for the caustic soda production or membranes for new energies, high-end display screens and medical care, mainly depend on import to meet the market demand.
3. Plastic trash pollution has become a global issue of common concern
Pollution caused by the discarding of polymer materials at will after use is becoming more and more serious. Statistics show that of 8.3 billion tons of plastic produts produced by mankind so far around 6.3 billion tons are discarded. Only 9% of them have been recycled for use. Seventy-nine percent of them have entered trash landfill yards or natural environments. Experts, scholars and enterprises in the field of polymer materials should all pay great attention to the development of schemes for removing plastic trash pollution so as to reduce and control plastic trash and promote the recycling of plastic products.
Ideas on the future sustainable development of polymer materials
1. Innovation is the key factor for the sustainable development
Innovation-driven has been regarded as one of the 2 major development strategies for the petroleum and chemical industry during the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan period. New chemical materials have been regarded as one of the 5 key sectors for the scientific and technological development of the petroleum and chemical industry. In the future innovation of polymer materials efforts should be made to closely follow new advances of science and technology and new changes of industrial development in the international community, aim at the high-end, differentiation and specialization of products and strengthen the building of the innovation system with enterprises as main players.
2. Green development is the fundamental measure for the sustainable development
Green development has already become the major orientation in the revolution of science and technology and the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. It is an important means for promoting supply-side structural reform and high-quality development. China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation has acted in concert with the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and formulated the “Guiding Views on Promoting the Green Development of the Petroleum and Chemical Industry”. While strengthening recycling, resource utilization and resue, the polymer material sector should also constantly intensify the building of the green manufacturing system and promote the clean renovation of advanced green process technologies. The traditional calcium carbide process for polyvinyl chloride has already been totally changed into the low-mercury process. The research and development of the mercury-free process is also in full swing.
In the polymer material sector the production of biodegradable materials is an important approach for removing plastic trash pollution and is also an important trend for future development. The bioprocess polymer material commercialized the earliest in China was polyacrylamide. Its commercialization was first achieved in enterprises such as Shengli Oilfield.
3. Market competition will be further aggravated
A new ethylene capacity of 5.00 million t/a will be added this year and the total capacity of ethylene will reach 30.50 million t/a. Nine polyethylene units will start production, a new capacity of 4.00 million t/a will be added and the total capacity will reach 22.44 million t/a. The new propylene capacity to be added in 2019 will be 4.00-5.00 million t/a and the total capacity will reach over 40.00 million t/a. Fourteen polypropylene units will start production this year, a new capacity of 4.50 million t/a will be added and the total capacity will reach 29.00 million t/a.
In addition, in the new material sector 17 polycarbonate projects are under construction today. In case these projects are totally completed, the new capacity will be 2.57 million t/a. Four polycarbonate projects totaling 1.33 million t/a are planned for construction. It is expected that the polycarbonate capacity in China will be close to 3.80 million t/a in 2020. The consumption will howeve not be over 2.30 millin tons. Market competiton will therefore be aggravated.
Capacities of nylon 6 and nylon 66, polyphenyl thioether, PBT, super absorbent resins, carbon fiber and ultrahigh molecular weight polyethylene are also making rapid expansion. Future market competition will also be further aggravated.
