Three Sectors Boost Acetic Acid Consumption

By Yan Feng

Rapid capacity expansion turns China into a net exporter

By the end of October 2017, the total capacity of acetic acid in China had reached 9 960 kt/a. The capacity using the methanol carbonylation process was 9 450 kt/a, or around 94.88% of the total. Capacity using the acetaldehyde-ethanol process was 510 kt/a, or around 5.12%. Table 1 and Figure 1 show the regional distribution of major acetic acid producers in 2017.
China’s import volume increased year-by-year during 2000-2006 according to customs statistics. With constant capacity expansion afterwards, the import volume declined gradually, being 15.7 kt during January-August 2017, a YoY drop of 79.38%. The export volume changed considerably. In 2010, China turned from a net importer to a net exporter. Table 2 shows the import and export of acetic acid during 2000-August 2017.

Table 1   Acetic acid producers in China, October 2017

Producer    Capacity
(kt/a)    Production process    Proportion of the total (%)
Jiangsu Sopo (Group) Co., Ltd.    1 400    Methanol carbonylation     14.06
Shanghai Huayi Chemical Co., Ltd.    1 300    Methanol carbonylation     13.05
Shandong Yancon Cathay Chemical Co., Ltd.    1 000    Methanol carbonylation     10.04
Celanese (Nanjing) Chemical Co., Ltd.    1 200    Methanol carbonylation     12.05
BP YPC Acetyls (Nanjing) Co., Ltd.    500    Methanol carbonylation     5.02
Hebei Zhongxin Chemical Co., Ltd.    500    Methanol carbonylation     5.02
Henan Shunda Chemical Technology Co., Ltd.    450    Methanol carbonylation     4.52
Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co., Ltd.    500    Methanol carbonylation     5.02
Yangzijiang Acetyl Chemical Co., Ltd.    450    Methanol carbonylation     4.52
Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum (Group) Co., Ltd.    300    Methanol carbonylation     3.01
Tianjin Bohai Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. Tianjin Soda Plant    200    Methanol carbonylation     2.01
Yunnan Yunwei Group Co., Ltd.    200    Methanol carbonylation     2.01
PetroChina Daqing Petrochemical Co., Ltd.    200    Methanol carbonylation     2.01
Shaanxi Yulin Zhuoyue Energy & Chemical Co., Ltd.    150    Methanol carbonylation     1.50
Jilin Iian New Energy Group Co., Ltd.    210    Acetaldehyde-ethanol     2.11
Shandong Jinyimeng Group Co., Ltd.    100    Acetaldehyde-ethanol     1.00
Shijiazhuang Xinyu Sanyang Industry Co., Ltd.    100    Acetaldehyde-ethanol     1.00
Zhonghai Pioneer Chemical (Taixing) Co., Ltd.    100    Acetaldehyde-ethanol     1.00
Shanxi Coking Group Co., Ltd.    200    Methanol carbonylation     2.01
Henan Coal Chemical Group Yima Coal Gasification Co., Ltd.    200    Methanol carbonylation    2.01
Great Wall Energy & Chemical (Ningxia) Co., Ltd.    300    Methanol carbonylation    3.01
Henan Yongcheng Longyu Coal Chemical Co., Ltd.    400    Methanol carbonylation     4.02
Total    9 960        


Consumption increases steadily with little price fluctuation

Apparent consumption has grown steadily in recent years. Acetic acid is used mainly in producing acetates, vinyl acetate and PTA, accounting respectively for 33.0%, 25.0% and 24.5% of the total. With the completion of quite a few downstream vinyl acetate and PTA units, demand for acetic acid will increase steadily in the next few years, likely reaching around 6 500 kt in 2021.
Acetic acid prices rose overall during 2012-2014, but declined during 2015-2016. After September 2016 they rose considerably due to rising raw material prices, an increase in demand and shutdowns for overhaul. The price fluctuation was quite small during January-September 2017. The highest price was RMB3 000/t, seen in September, and the lowest was RMB2 620/t, seen in May. Players should expect acetic acid prices to decline gently for a considerable period with little fluctuation, as raw material prices will tend to be stable, operating rates will gradually go up and the growth of prices of downstream products will be slower.

Future development trend

The main processes used in producing acetic acid today are light hydrocarbon liquid-phase oxidation, acetaldehyde oxidation, ethylene direct oxidation, ethane selective catalytic oxidation (coproduction of acetic acid and ethylene) and methanol carbonylation. Methanol carbonylation is the major synthesis method. With constant improvement of production processes and development of catalysts, this process will remain the first choice, becoming even more dominant as a percent of total capacity. Users of the methanol carbonylation process are developing in scale, energy conservation and environmental protection. New catalyst systems with good stability, high yield and low use-cost will still be the focus of R&D. Meanwhile, green low-carbon acetic acid production processes with carbon dioxide, microalgae, kitchen rubbish and agricultural & forest residues as raw materials will also be pursued constantly, but all are far from large-scale commercial production.
In general, acetic acid capacity will keep growing. Quite a few units will be constructed or expanded in the next few years – e.g. a 500 kt/a unit of Guangxi Huayi Energy & Chemical Co., Ltd., a 600 kt/a unit of Chongqing Wansheng Coal Chemical Co., Ltd., a 400 kt/a unit of Shandong Yancon Cathay Chemical Co., Ltd., a 600 kt/a unit of Hualu Hengsheng Chemical Co., Ltd. and a capacity expansion project of Yangzijiang Acetyl Chemical Co., Ltd. If all these projects keep to schedule, China’s capacity is likely to exceed 11 000 kt/a in 2021. Downstream capacity expansion – for products such as vinyl acetate and acetates – will be limited however. So acetic acid capacity will be in surplus long-term. Competition in the acetic acid market will get fiercer, and the profitability of the sector will weaken further.
Vinyl acetate, acetates and PTA will remain the three drivers of acetic acid consumption in China; the proportion consumed in other sectors will increase little. So development of these three sectors will continue to determine the consumption pattern of acetic acid.
Acetic acid prices will be influenced by two primary factors – the supply of raw material methanol, and acetic acid demand from makers of vinyl acetate, acetates and PTA – while fluctuating narrowly. As demand will be relatively stable, however, the price fluctuation will not be very big.                 

Table 2    Foreign trade of acetic acid, 2000-2017  (kt)

Year    Import    Export
    Volume    Price (US$/t)    Volume    Price (US$/t)
2005    542.0    638.82    35.0    597.41
2006    706.8    509.57    28.2    586.72
2007    499.1    617.84    137.6    526.14
2008    304.6    619.76    23.4    656.23
2009    298.2    384.04    64.9    472.04
2010    58.9    384.89    216.1    431.16
2011    17.7    467.21    666.1    495.52
2012    21.4    446.55    330.6    446.95
2013    16.8    455.77    179.0    435.38
2014    17.4    550.66    181.0    479.69
2015    53.1    346.65    393.0    382.82
2016    86.9    291.35    240.2    278.97
2017 (Jan-Aug)    15.7    372.92    232.1    373.88