China’s Petroleum Demand to Grow 2%-3% Annually: Expert

China's petroleum demand will maintain a low growth rate of 2%-3% per year as economic growth will be playing a weaker role in boosting demand, and demand may reach its peak around 2030, according to an expert from the CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute, speaking at the China Oil & Gas Reform and Development Summit on November 26.
China’s demand growth for refined fuels will remain at medium and low rates while oil refining capacity will continue to increase, supporting the country’s demand growth for petroleum. China’s petroleum consumption per year will reach 608 million tons in 2020 and 680 million tons in 2030 under the baseline scenario, taking into account the use of alternative fuels. That will translate into an average annual growth rate of 2.4% in 2015-2020 and 1.1% during 2020-2030.
Among them, refined oil consumption in China will continue to rise slowly, be less energy intensive and more environmental friendly, as fuel quality keeps improving.
China’s mid and long-term demand for gasoline will continue to grow, but the growth rate will be declining gradually, the expert said. Kerosene, driven by aviation demand, will maintain sustained and rapid growth. Diesel consumption will be affected by slowing demand in industry, which is undergoing transformation, and the transport sector, as well as decreased appetite for commodities.
Supply/demand balance of refined oil products will be loose in the future in China while growth of natural gas and electricity, among other alternatives, will accelerate.