Large Supply Gap of MIBK in China

By Zhou Chunyan, the Research Institute of PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical Co., Ltd.

1. Supply and demand of the global MIBK market

The world’s capacity to make methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK) has reached around 455 000 t/a, with facilities concentrated mainly in North America (93 000 t/a, 20%), Western Europe (59 000 t/a, 13%) and Asia (207 000 t/a, 45%). Major MIBK producers are listed in Table 1. A forecast of global MIBK demand is shown in Table 2.

Table 1 Major MIBK Producers in the World in 2012  (thousand t/a)
Producer    Capacity    Proportion of the world’s total capacity (%)
Sasol    60    13
Kumho P&B Chemicals    55    12
Celanese Corporation    50    11
Shell    45    10
Dow Chemical    34    8
PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical Co., Ltd.    30    7
Mitsui Chemicals    30    7
Rhodia    25    6
LCY Chemical Corp    24    5
Mitsubishi Chemical Corporation    20    4
Total    366    83

Table 2 Forecast of the Demand for MIBK around the World  (thousand tons)
Regions    2011    2016(expected)    Growth during 2011-2016 (%)
North America    56.0    59.3    1.2
South and Central America    16.8    20.8    4.4
Western Europe    50.0    52.0    0.8
Central and Eastern Europe    7.0    7.8    2.2
Africa    4.0    4.5    2.4
The Middle East    3.0    3.6    3.7
Asia    172.4    225.3    5.5
Oceania    1.1    1.2    1.8
Total    310.3    374.5    3.8

   The manufacture of solvents is the major consumption sector for MIBK around the world, accounting for about 61% of the total. Next comes the manufacture of rubber antioxidants, consuming around 24%. In addition, MIBK is used in other sectors including acetylenic surfactant. Global production of MIBK-consuming products is shifting from the advanced regions to Asia, especially China. It is expected that the growth of demand for rubber antioxidants in Asia (excluding Japan) will reach 8.5% in the next few years, while in the United States and Western Europe it will be only 1.0%-1.5%. Driven by the growth of MIBK demand in Asia, it is expected that the average annual growth of MIBK consumption in the world will be 3.8% in the next few years, and by 2016, the total demand for MIBK in the world will reach around 375 000 t/a.

2. Stable increase of demand in China

In 2012, Zhejiang Xinhua Chemical Co., Ltd. started up its 10 000 t/a MIBK unit in Jiande of Zhejiang province, and China’s total capacity to make MIBK reached around 94 000 t/a. All MIBK units in China use the acetone one-step process. In 2012, China had five MIBK producers. (see Table 3)

Table 3 China’s MIBK Producers in 2012 (thousand t/a)
Producer    Capacity     Remarks
Fine Chemical Plant of PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical Co., Ltd.     30    Acetone one-step process, 2 units
Ningbo Oceanking Chemical Development Co., Ltd.     15    Acetone one-step process, being completed in 2007
Jiangsu Taizhou Petrochemical Co., Ltd.     15    Acetone one-step process, startup in 2008
LCY Chemical Corp (Zhenjiang)     24    Acetone one-step process, startup in 2009
Zhejiang Xinhua Chemical Co., Ltd.    10    Acetone one-step process, startup in 2012
Total    94

   In recent years, with the rapid growth of demand for antioxidants and coatings, China’s demand for MIBK has grown steadily. The apparent consumption of MIBK in China was 61 700 tons in 2008, and reached 100 000 tons in 2012, with an average annual growth of around 13% during 2008-2012. Although the operating rate of domestic MIBK units is climbing, output still has not caught up with growing domestic demand. China’s development of MIBK capacity has slowed down, making it all the more difficult for producers to keep up with the pace of market demand. Therefore, China still needs to import a large amount of MIBK to satisfy the domestic demand. China’s supply and demand of MIBK in recent years are listed in Table 4.

Table 4 China’s Supply and Demand of MIBK in Recent Years (kt)
Year    Output    Import     Export    Apparent consumption
2008    27.8    34.0    0.055    61.7
2009    38.5    27.8    0.184    66.1
2010    54.1    27.2    0.133    81.1
2011    62.6    20.6    1.168    82.0
2012    73.3    26.7    0.01    100.0
   
   In China, MIBK is mainly used in rubber antioxidants (55%) and solvents (21%). It is expected that the growth of demand for MIBK in China will be 9.8% in the next few years, while the growth of demand for rubber antioxidants will exceed 10%; and by 2016, China’s demand for MIBK will reach around 150 000 tons.
   In 2012, China’s import volume of MIBK reached around 26 700 tons, up 29.7% year-on-year. The main sources of imported MIBK were South Africa, Japan, Taiwan province and the United States. At present, China’s production of MIBK cannot meet the domestic demand. With the increasing demand for MIBK in the domestic market, it is expected that China’s import volume of MIBK will remain over 20 000 tons in the next few years.
   Due to the relatively small scale of domestic MIBK enterprises, imported products have serious impacts on the domestic MIBK sector, a persistent challenge for survival and development in MIBK sector in China. Therefore, it is suggested that the domestic enterprises fully use the advantages of raw materials to expand the scale of units and better meet the market demand. At the same time, the domestic MIBK sector should accelerate R&D in catalysts, produce catalysts locally and reduce production costs.