Automobile Plastics Can Deal with Energy Challenges   

By Peter Zong, CNCIC

Traditional fuel vehicles will not be the major driving factor for plastic development

In recent years, China's plastic industry has developed dramatically. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China produced 14 million tons of plastic products and articles in 2002, and 58.3 million tons in 2010, with an annual average growth rate of 19.6% between 2002 and 2010. Applications of plastics have already entered various economic branches. Industrial application is an important branch, of which automobile application plays an important role in the plastic market. China Plastics Processing Industry Association (CPPIA) estimated that the consumption of plastics in making automobiles shares around 5%-8% in China's total plastics consumption and the figure may be 8%-10% in the developed economies. In China, making one car consumes 78 kilograms of plastics on average. China manufactured 18.3 million automobiles in 2010, consuming 1.43 million tons of plastics. If China could use plastics as much as developed economies in automobile production, its automobile plastics consumption should reach around 2.1 million tons a year.
   Between 2002 and 2010, the annual average growth rate of China's automobile production approached 24%, higher than that of plastic article production. Therefore, the rapid increase of vehicle plastics consumption, which caused significant attention from plastic players, is mainly driven by the increase of automotive production. Of course, helping improve safety, saving energy and reducing weight are also good reasons for increasing plastic applications in automobiles.
   To study the future application prospect of plastics in automobiles, the prospect of the automotive industry must be well understood at first. Any industry has its periodical development cycle, and the automotive industry is not an exception. China's automobile production and consumption has expanded at a surprising rate in the past decade and has been hardly impacted by the 2008 global economic crisis. However, it will go into the saturated stage eventually. In the first nine months of 2011, China produced 13.96 million automobiles, up 4.5% year on year. The growth rate was lower than the 5.21% growth in 2008, the lowest in the past ten years. It is estimated that the total production will not exceed 19 million in 2011. The reasons for slowing growth include economic recession, shortage of oil supply, limitation of road resources, and the strategic shift of automobile makers. Of course, it will not accordingly be judged that China's automotive industry has already entered the saturated stage. NBS reported that the production of plastic articles grew 19.9% in China in the first nine months of 2011.
   Optimistic analysts may project the prospect of China's automotive industry by referring to the number of in-service automobiles per capita in developed economies. Now the number of automobile per capita reaches one in the USA, but China is only one thirteenth of the USA level. This can help some analysts get an optimistic forecast that China's consumption of automotives just begins and will continue to rocket. Those analysts ignore the huge population and other concerning factors in China. Yes, China has as large land as the USA, but the land area that is not suitable for driving in China is much larger than in the USA. If China's production and sale of automotives continue to grow at 24% annually, the number of its total in-service automobiles will reach 300 million in 2015-2016. By that time, can China's road afford so many automobiles? On the basis of the current road construction rate, there is almost no possibility for this. The gasoline supply will also be in short. An over-high development rate for the automotive industry will impact heavily on China's energy supply security. Therefore, rational forecast is that in the coming five years, China's consumption of fuel automobiles will grow 8%-10% annually. Compare to the current 19.6% growth rate, traditional fuel vehicles will not be a major driver for plastic development.

Differences of plastic applications in traditional fuel automobiles and new energy vehicles

The issue that China's automotive industry will face in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan period (2011-2015) is to save oil. For this issue, traditional fuel automobiles will shoulder the main target in saving oil in the short term, and new energy vehicles will be next. CPPIA expert Mr. Liu Yingjun said that China's automotive industry has three problems to solve urgently. The first is to develop new energy in order to get rid of relying on petroleum. The second is to improve the efficiency rate of engines. The third is to reduce vehicle weight. Reportedly, plastics and their composite materials can help cut 40% weight for auto parts, and the developed economies will increase the average plastics consumption per automobile from 172 kilograms now to 500 kilograms in 2020. To cut energy consumption, plastics have been applied in structural parts of automobiles, such as oil tanks, fenders and fan blades, not just in their auto interior parts like lamps and seats.
   CH Auto Technology Corporation Limited CEO Mr. Wang Kejian said: "There are three rational reasons for traditional fuel automobiles to use plastics: easy to shape, anti-corrosion and lower cost. Performances of plastics, including lighter weight, easy reuse and environmental friendliness, do not contribute much to plastic application in autos." Lighter weight caused by using plastics can save oil, but most plastics are derivatives of petroleum. It is nearly impossible for traditional fuel cars to use plastics to make car frames. "Plastic materials cannot be processed by punching, so plastics can only be made into auxiliary parts forever and cannot be used to make the main components of autos."
   The auto industry is now promoting new energy vehicles, which have higher requirements on light weight than traditional fuel cars. The battery technology cannot meet the requirements in energy alternatives, and shorter drive mileage is now the bottleneck of pure electric vehicles. Given limited power, lighter cars can undoubtedly run longer, so light weight is necessary for new energy vehicles. Pure electric vehicle designers are often required to control the whole car weight below 500 kilograms. Experts attending the summit (the 2011 Auto Composite Materials Market and Processing Technology Summit; the background information of the summit is attached below) claim that plastic materials available for auto structural parts have uncertain performances in stability, load capacity and durability. Especially in China, there are no uniform testing and using standards. So there is still a lot of work in expanding plastic application in automobiles.

New favorites for vehicle plastics

Materials suppliers in China commented that the development emphasis of auto plastic parts has shifted to the development of auto structural parts, reinforced composite materials for exterior parts and high-performance resins. Thermoplastic polyolefin elastomer (TPO), which integrates the features of plastics and rubber and features low density, high performance and low cost, becomes a preferred plastics in making auto parts. China National Chemical Information Center's data show that in China, there are several small companies which produce TPO from purchased polypropylene and EPDM (ethylene propylene diene monomer), but there is no reactor-type TPO producer. The supply shortage of TPO resin again becomes a bottleneck.
   Auto materials experts disclosed at the summit that auto-long-fiber reinforced thermoplastic plastics (LFT) are welcome by auto parts makers.