Review of China's PVC Industry in the Past Decade   

By China Chlor-Alkali Industry Association

1. Production

1.1 Review of production in the past decade

According to incomplete statistics, by 2010 China's PVC resin production capacity reached 12.927 million t/a, while it was only 2.646 million t/a in 2000. In the past decade, China's PVC industry had developed rapidly, growing 20% annually, on average. And 20 years ago, that is, in 1990, China's PVC output was only 785 000 tons. Data showed that the demand for PVC resin is highly correlated with the development of the national economy. In the ten years from 2000 to 2010, the growth rate of China's actual PVC output was basically 1.5-2.0 times that of the country's GDP. The growth rates of China's GDP and PVC output in 2000-2010 are listed in Table 1.

Table 1 Growth rates of China's GDP and PVC output in 2000 - 2010
Year    2000    2001    2002    2003    2004    2005    2006    2007    2008    2009    2010
GDP/%    8.0    7.5    8.3    9.5    10.1    10.4    11.6    13.0    9.0    8.7    10.3
PVC output /%    37.9    16.6    20.5    25.1    19.9    31.3    23.3    19.8    -9.3    30.9    12.0

    Milestones for China's PVC industry in the past decade are:
    (1) In 2005, China's PVC production capacity reached 8.872 million t/a, accounting for about 26% of the world's total (about 34.07 million t/a), exceeding the US's capacity (8.633 million t/a), and ranking first in the world.
    (2) In 2006, China's actual PVC output reached 8.238 million tons, exceeding the U.S. output, and ranking first in the world.
    (3) In 2010, China's PVC capacity exceeded 20 million t/a for the first time, and its PVC output reached 129.27 million tons. The country's monthly PVC output in November 2010 reached 1.03 million tons, creating a record high.
    China's PVC capacity and output in 2000-2010 are listed in Table 2.

Table 2 China's PVC capacity and output in 2000-2010
Year    Capacity (kt/a)    Output (kt)    Output YoY growth /%    Operating rate /%
2000    2903    2646    37.9    91.1
2001    3402    3088    16.6    90.5
2002    4852    3553    20.5    73.2
2003    5197    4243    25.1    81.6
2004    6562    5088    19.9    77.5
2005    8872    6682    31.3    75.3
2006    10585    8238    23.3    77.8
2007    14480    9717    19.8    67.1
2008    15810    8817    -9.3    55.8
2009    17279    11546    30.9    66.8
2010    20227    12927    12.0    63.9

1.2. Raw material routes have undergone dramatic changes

In the decade from 2000 to 2010, the raw material routes of China's PVC industry had also undergone dramatic changes. In 2000, the calcium carbide route accounted for approximately 50% of China's PVC capacity. In 2010, this proportion was increased to 80%. China's PVC output growth came mainly from the calcium carbide route.
   The raw material route changes of China's PVC industry in 2003-2010 are listed in Table 3. In 2000, the calcium carbide route accounted for 57% of China's total PVC capacity, and the ethylene route accounted for 43%. But in 2010, the calcium carbide route accounted for 80% of China's total PVC capacity, and the ethylene route accounted for only 20%.
Table 3  Raw material route changes of China's PVC industry in recent years
Year    2003    2004    2005    2006    2007    2008    2009    2010
Total capacity /kt/a    5197    6562    8872    10585    14480    15810    17279    20227
Total output /kt    4243    5088    6682    8238    9717    8817    11546    12927
Total output YoY growth /%    25.1    19.9    31.3    23.3    19.8    -9.3    30.9    12.0
Operating rate /%    81.6    77.5    75.3    77.8    67.1    55.8    66.8    63.9
Calcium carbide-based (CCB) output /kt    2311    3112    4347    5840    6851    5917    8210    10243
YoY growth (CCB output) /%    19.3    34.7    39.7    34.4    17.1    -13.6    38.7    36.6
Share (CCR) /%    54.5    61.2    65.1    70.9    70.5    67.1    71.1    79.2
Ethylene route-based(ER) output  /kt    1932    1976    2335    2398    2869    2900    3330    2381
YoY growth (ER output) /%    32.9    2.3    18.2    2.6    19.9    -1.0    14.8    -9.1
Share (ER) /%    45.5    38.8    34.9    29.1    29.5    32.9    28.8    18.4


　　Currently, the main raw materials of PVC are calcium carbide, ethylene, imported VCM