Status quo and Outlook of China's MIBK Market   

By Cui Xiaoming, Research Institute of Sinopec Yanshan Petrochemical Co Ltd

1 Overview of the global MIBK market

In recent years, the global production capacity of methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK) has grown steadily. In 2005, the global MIBK capacity totaled about 390 000 t/a. It climbed to about 460 000 t/a in 2007 and about 555 000 t/a in 2009, mainly distributed in North America, Western Europe and Asia.
   In 2009, the global MIBK consumption totaled about 320 000 tons, mainly concentrated in Asia, North America and Western Europe. The three regions accounted for about 90.0% of the world's total MIBK consumption. Asia accounted for about 52.0% of the global total, Western Europe about 20.3%, and North America about 17.8%. Globally, about 65.0% of MIBK was used as a solvent for paints and coatings, and about 23.0% was used in rubber antioxidants.
   In developed countries and regions, the consumption structure and consumption volume of MIBK will essentially have no much change in the next five years. In term of the consumption structure, the demand for MIBK in solvents will gradually reduce, while the demand for it in rubber antioxidants and surface active agents will still have some space to grow.

2  Production of MIBK in China

China started producing MIBK in the 1980s. Back then, several small-scale MIBK units were built by Shanghai Pacific Chemical Corporation, Jinling Petrochemical Co Ltd, Jinzhou Petrochemical Co Ltd and Henan Yellow River Chemical Plant. Because these MIBK units featured small scale, high production costs and energy consumption, their operating rate had been relatively low. In the late 1990s, as the domestic demand for MIBK was relatively small, most MIBK units stopped production or were operational in the low operating rates.
   Since the beginning of the 21st century, with the growing demand for MIBK in the fields of rubber antioxidants and coatings, a large amount of foreign MIBK products poured into the Chinese market, and the import volume of MIBK increased year by year. This accelerated the development of MIBK in China. After years of exploration and research, CNPC Jilin Petrochemical Company successfully developed the one-step process for the synthesis of MIBK from acetone. After small-scale and medium-scale pilot tests, the company set up a 15 000 t/a MIBK plant in 2004. Since then, China's MIBK industry began to step into the right track and develop rapidly. In 2007, the company built an additional 15 000 t/a MIBK plant, so its total MIBK production capacity reached 30 000 t/a. In 2008, Ningbo Oceanking Chemical Development Co Ltd (Oceanking Chemical) and Jiangsu Taizhou Petrochemical Co Ltd completed a 15 000 t/a MIBK plant, respectively. In 2009, LCY Chemical Corp put a 40 000 t/a MIBK plant into operation in Zhenjiang, Jiangsu province.
   As of the end of December 2010, China's total MIBK production capacity reached about 105 000 t/a, and all used the one-step process. LCY Chemical Corp is currently China's leading MIBK producer, accounting for about 38.10% of the nation's total capacity. In the next few years, there will be some new or expanded MIBK projects to be put into operation. For example, Oceanking Chemical intends to expand its existing MIBK capacity to 30 000 t/a, and Mitsui Chemicals plans to build a 50 000 t/a MIBK plant in China. Thus by 2015, China's total MIBK production capacity will reach about 170 000 t/a. The capacity of China's major MIBK manufacturers in 2010 is listed Table 1.
                                  
Table1 China's major MIBK manufacturers in 2010                                      (thousand t/a)
Manufacturer    Capacity    Remarks
CNPC Jilin Petrochemical Company    30    One-step process, 2 units
Ningbo Oceanking Chemical Development Co Ltd    15    One-step process, startup in 2008
Jiangsu Taizhou Petrochemical Co Ltd    15    One-step process, startup in 2008
LCY Chemical Corp (Zhenjiang)    40    One-step process, startup in 2009
Others    5
Total    105


3  Imports and exports of MIBK in China

Prior to 2007, because the MIBK production was small, China mainly depended on imports to meet its needs for MIBK. According to customs statistics, China's import volume of MIBK was 16 277.9 tons in 2000 and increased to 38 720.9 tons in 2005, annually increasing 18.92% during 2000 - 2005. In 2007, the nation imported 46 732.5 tons of MIBK, up about 4.17% year on year, creating a record high. After 2007, as several large-scale MIBK units were put into operation in China one after another, the domestic MIBK output constantly increased, resulting in the decline of imports. In 2008, China's import volume of MIBK dropped to 33 961.2 tons, down about 27.33% year on year. In 2009, it further fell to 27 789.6 tons, down 18.17% year on year. In 2010, it was 27 240.4 tons, down about 2.0% year on year. In 2003 - 2005, due to the hike of international crude oil prices and the development of coatings and rubber industries, China's average imported price of MIBK continued to rise. In 2003, the average imported price of MIBK was only about US$871.9 /t. In 2004, it climbed to US$1087.3 /t. In 2005, it reached US$1 497.1 /t, up 37.69% year on year. In 2007, it still had a year-on-year growth of 6.81% compared to 2006. In 2008, it reached US$1 680.6 /t, creating a record high. In 2009, it fell to US$1 102.8 /t, down about 34.38%. In 2010, it hit around US$1 585.2 /t, up about 45.83%. China's imports and exports of MIBK in recent years are shown in Table 2.

Table 2 China's imports and exports of MIBK                                          (tons, US$/t)
                    Imports                    Exports
Year    Imports    Average import price    Exports    Average export price
2003    32116.5    871.9    660.1    929.7
2004    36899.5    1087.3    1099.1    1181.2
2005    38720.9    1497.1    406.5    1671.4
2006    44859.6    1275.1    100.9    1916.6
2007    46732.5    1362.0    58.3    2142.1
2008    33961.2    1680.6    55.0    6707.7
2009    27789.6    1102.8    184.0    2521.4
2010   &nbs