Glass Production in Emerging Economies to Drive Soda Ash Demand    

Global consumption of soda ash fell by 7.6% in 2009 to 44 million tons, following growth of 4.2% between 2000 and 2008, Roskill Information Services analyzed in its latest report. Consumers in the glass industry, which accounts for 53% of total demand, scaled back purchases during the global economic downturn. The fall was compounded by lower detergent and chemical output, the other major end-uses for soda ash.
   Emerging economies have been the growth driver for soda ash over the last decade with rising GDP and urbanisation leading to higher per capita use of products manufactured using soda ash. China was one of only a handful of countries showing a positive increase in soda ash consumption in 2009 and was responsible for 90% of world growth between 2000 and 2009, Roskill said.
   Future demand for soda ash, forecast to grow at 3% per year over the next five years, will be led by flat glass, detergents and water treatment. The use of soda ash in mining and metals and flue gas desulfurization might also spur increased demand. Emerging economies, particularly China and the wider Southeast Asia region, but also the Middle East, South Asia and South America, will continue to provide the best opportunities for soda ash demand growth on a regional basis.
   Global total capacity for soda ash production stands at 63 million t/a in mid-2010.  Operating rates are recovering from lows of 70% in 2009, but are still some way off reaching the 85% seen in 2007/2008. New and expansion projects have the potential to add 15 million t/a to total capacity by 2015, with China contributing a significant proportion to this total and other emerging economies the remainder. China appears to be rapidly heading towards a position of substantial overcapacity, although tighter government targets for raw material and energy consumption could see some rationalisation of older capacity by 2015.