Projection on the Twelfth Petrochemical Five-year Program    

By Bai Yi, China National Petroleum & Chemical Planning Institute   

1. Free fall from the peak - review on the eleventh five-year program (2006 - 2010)

    1.1 Rapid development in three years peak period

In 2006 - 2008, China's petroleum and chemical industry experienced a boosted peak period like nothing that was ever seen before, with market trade being active, units operating at high loads, enterprises enjoying good financial results, adjustment of industrial structure accelerating, a good change being witnessed in the mode of economic growth, and better result in optimizing development. The yearly average growth of production value in China's petroleum and chemical industry was 21.25% in the period of 2006 to 2008, that of industrial value added and sales revenue were 18.28% and 21.5% respectively, all higher than China's GDP growth and the growth of chemical industry in developed countries in the same period. Now China leads globally in production capacity and output for many petrochemicals.

China's Output of Main Petrochemicals in 2006-2008                                             
(thousand tons)
Year
    2000    2005    2006    2007    2008    Remarks
Fertilizers (on 100% nutrients)
    30 913    48 879    51 688    56 974    58 675    No.1 worldwide
Nitrogenous fertilizers (on 100% nutrients)
    23 980    35 759    37 823    41 876    43 311    No.1 worldwide
Phosphate fertilizers (on 100% nutrients)
    6 630    10 753    11 582    12 572    12 589    No.1 worldwide
Potash fertilizers (on 100% nutrients)
    303     1 485    2 257    2 499    2 775    -
Sulfuric acid
    23 650    44 622    48 088    53 907    51 101    No.1 worldwide
Soda ash
    8 340    14 211    15 666    17 718    18 813    No.1 worldwide
Methanol
    1 990    5 356    7 585    10 764    11 263    No.1 worldwide
Oil processed
    202380    286223    307140    326793    342066    No.2 worldwide
Ethylene
    4 700    7 555    9 304    10 477    10 256    No.2 worldwide
Purified terephthalic acid (PTA)
    2 020    5 560    6 650    9 330    9 180    -
Para-xylene (PX)
    1 300    2 237    2 790    3 500    3 340    -
Synthetic rubbers
    836     1 632    1 958    2 215    2 383    No.3 worldwide
Synthetic resins
    10 794    21 419    25 937    30 376    31 296    No.2 worldwide
Engineering plastics
    37      197     349     556     1 350    -
Caustic soda
    6 680    12 400    15 037    17 593    18 522    No.1 worldwide
Polyvinyl chloride (PVC)
    2 400    6 490    8 111    9 717    8 816    No.1 worldwide
Calcium carbide
    3 400    8 950    12 516    14 819    13 608    No.1 worldwide
Pesticides
    648     1 040    1 392    1 731    1 903    No.1 worldwide
Tyre (pieces)
    121580    318200    453900    556486    546145    No.1 worldwide
Source: China National Petroleum & Chemical Planning Institute

Majority progress in 2006 - 2008

    A. A group of enterprises with mighty competitiveness emerged in the industry. China's petrochemical players now has a diversified structure with the state-owned petrochemical companies leading, aggressively joined by foreign chemical giants and other domestic chemical companies.
    B. The technology level and scale of China's petrochemical industry have been upgraded through renovations and new construction of large scale production units. By the end of 2008, China has thirteen refining units with individual capacity of over 10 million t/a. These thirteen refining units have a combined capacity of 13.6 million t/a, accounting for 42.6% of the country's total. The single plant capacity averaged on all refineries reached 2.56 million t/a and the average single plant capacity of ethylene was 450 thousand t/a, both improved markedly.
    C. Product distribution has been optimized and adjusted. The proportion of high end products increased continuously. Output of chemical fertilizers with high concentrate nutrients accounted for 75% of the total. Heavy soda ash output held 37% of the total output of soda ash. Among tire output, 63% is of radial tire. Pesticides output increased steadily while the proportion of high toxicity varieties declined to 5%.    
    D. Clusters became the bulk of industrial layout. China's petrochemical industry has rounded three cluster regions in the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and the Bohai Sea Ring, and a group of chemical parks with international leading management level and local industrial features are operating well. Nitrogenous fertilizers production hubs are mainly built in Hainan, Shanxi, Sichuan and Shandong provinces and Xinjiang region. Yunnan province is about to complete construction of a high concentrate phosphate compound fertilizers base, two others are being constructed in Guizhou and Hubei provinces, scheduled for startup in 2010. The potash fertilizer production base in Qinghai province has been online and the other one is being construct