Where Is the Economy of China Going in H2?  

The China's economy has passed the first half of 2008 with lots of suggestions and questions. Where is the economy of China going in the second half of 2008? What are the major factors affecting the economic development in China? Economists from the political circle, the governmental circle and the market observation all have thought that the China's GDP growth will slow down in the second half of 2008. Only a few economists expect the China's GDP to have a double-digit growth.
    More than a half of economists think that the investment will increase further in the second half of 2008. 72% of economists think that the consumption will also present a trend of stable growth.
   In terms of exports, nearly 80% of economists think that the export growth will see a reduction in the second half of 2008.
   Regarding CPI, 70% of economists think that the CPI growth will come down step by step. Nearly 30% of economists however think that the CPI growth will go further up but below double digit.
   In the first half of 2008, the appreciation of RMB with respect to US dollars was once regarded to be an important method for containing inflation. Most economists think that the RMB value should be kept stable in the second half of 2008.
   What are the major factors affecting the economy of China? A half of economists think that inflation is a most important factor affecting China's economic development in the future, and the error in the macro-control policies is regarded to rank the second place.