Projection of China's Agricultural Tire Market
The mechanization in China is still at a low level. In 1998
the machine-plowed farmlands were  62. 90%  of  the  total
farmlands; The machine-sown area was 24.95% of  the  total
sown area; The machine-harvested area was 15. 24%  of  the
total harvested area; The machine sown or  harvested  rice
area was only less than 10% and the machine-harvested corn
area was even less than 1%. There  are  not  many  combine
-harvesters, and every combine-harvester had a sowing  area
of 532 hectares in 1998. There will therefore be  a  great
potential market  of  agricultural  machinery  when  China
basically realizes agricultural mechanization.
  Table 1 shows the projection  of  agricultural  machinery
including tractors in China.
(1) demand of large and medium tractors and tires
  There were 721 100 large and medium tractors in China  in
1998. Projection  by  different  methods  shows  that  the
demand  of  large  and  medium  tractors  ( including  new
additions and replenishments on a 10-year basis)  will  be
70 000 - 90 000 from 1999 to 2000, including 60 000 -   70
000 wheel tractors; The demand will be 400 000 -  450  000
from 2001 to 2005 with an annual average of 80 000 - 90 000,
including 320 000 - 360 000 wheel tractors with an  annual
average of 60 000 - 70 000; The demand will be 450  000  -
500 000 from 2006 to 2010, including 360 000  -   400  000
wheel tractors with an annual average of 70 000 - 80  000.
Table 2 shows the tire demand from 1999 to 2010 based on 4
wheels per large and medium tractor.  
(2) demand of small tractors and tires
  There were 11.3624 million small tractors in China in 1998.
Projection by different methods shows that the  demand  of
small tractors (including new additions and replenishments
on an 8-year basis) will be 4.20 million from 1999 to 2000
, including 2.13 million four-wheel small tractors and 2.07
million walking tractors; The demand will be 8.77 -  9. 60
million from 2001 to 2005, including 4.46 - 4. 88  million
four-wheel small tractors and 4.31 - 4.72 million  walking
tractors; The demand will be 9.00 -  10. 00  million  from
2006 to 2010, including 4.57 - 5. 08  million  four- wheel
small tractors and 4.43 - 4.92 million  walking  tractors.
Table 2 shows the tire demand from 1999 to 2010 based on 4
wheels per four-wheel  small  tractor  and  2  wheels  per
walking tractor.
(3) demand of four-wheel agricultural  transport  vehicles
and tires
    There  were  2. 118  million  four- wheel  agricultural
transport  vehicles  in  China  in  1998.   Projection  by
different methods shows that  the  demand  of  four- wheel
agricultural transport vehicles (including  new  additions
and replenishments on an 8-year basis)  will  be  980  000
from 1999 to 2000 with an annual average of 490 000;   The
demand will be 2.48 million from 2001 to  2005  and  2. 83
million from 2006 to 2010. Table 3 shows the  tire  demand
from 1999 to 2010 based on 6 wheels per vehicle in 20%  of
four-wheel agricultural transport vehicles  and  4  wheels
per vehicle in 80% of four- wheel  agricultural  transport
vehicles.
(4) demand of three-wheel agricultural transport  vehicles
and tires
   There  were  12. 78  million  three- wheel  agricultural
transport  vehicles  in  China  in  1998.   Projection  by
different methods shows that the  demand  of  three- wheel
agricultural transport vehicles (including  new  additions
and replenishments on an 8- year  basis)   will  be  5. 70
million from 1999 to 2000 with an annual average of  2. 85
million; The demand will be 16.20  million  from  2001  to
2005 with an annual average of 3.24 million;   The  demand
will be 15.78 million from 2006 to  2010  with  an  annual
average of 3.15 million. Table 3  shows  the  tire  demand
from 1999 to 2010  based  on  3  wheels  per  three- wheel
agricultural transport vehicle.
(5) demand of large and medium tractor trailers and tires
  There were 571 400 large and medium tractor  trailers  in
China in 1998. Table 3 shows the tire demand from 1999  to
2010 according to the ratio (1 :  1)   between  large  and
medium tractor trailers and wheel tractors and the  demand
of large and medium wheel tractors  in  different  periods
and based on 4 wheels per tractor trailer.
(6) demand of small tractor trailers and tires
  There were 8.3258 million tractor trailers  in  China  in
1998. Table 3 shows the tire  demand  from  1999  to  2010
according to the ratio (1 : 0.73) between  small  tractors
and tractor trailers and the demand of small  tractors  in
different period and based on 2 wheels per tractor trailer
.
(7) demand of combine harvesters and tires
  There were 181 800 combine harvesters in China in 1998, a
rise of 28.75% over 1997 and a rise of 5.38 times over 1987,
the average annual growth rate being 16.57%.   The  growth
  rate  is  the  highest  among  agricultural   machinery.
Projection by different methods shows that the  demand  of
  combine  harvesters  (  including   new   additions   and
replenishments on a 12-year basis) will  be  68  600  from
1999 to 2000; The demand will be 171 000 from 2001 to 2005
with an annual average of 34 200; The demand will  be  237
200 from 2006 to 2010 with an annual average  of  47  000.
Table 4 shows the tire demand from 1999 to 2010 based on 4
wheels per combine harvester.
(8) demand of motor-driven plant protection  vehicles