A Glance at the Detergent Sector Prospect
                      By Wang Zhiming
The detergent sector has de-veloped fast in  China.   There
are already 350 detergent producers, of which 118 are soap
producers with a capacity of 1.5 million t/a  and  99  are
synthetic detergent producers  with  a  capacity  of  3. 5
million t/a. The total output of detergents  in  China  is
more than 3.5 million tons, holding the second place in the
world.
According to the development program, the detergent  sector
in China will have a greater  expansion  in  the  next  10
years or so. The total output of  detergents  in  2000  is
expected to reach 3.8 million tons,  3  million  tons  for
synthetic detergents and 800 000 tons for soap.   The  raw
material demand will be 200 000 tons for alkylbenzene, 420
000 tons for sodium tripolyphosphate,  165  000  tons  for
aliphatic alcohol, 150 000 tons for alcohol ether, 40  000
tons  for  4A  zeolite  and  50  000  tons  for  enzymatic
preparations. The total output of detergents  in  2010  is
expected to reach 5 million tons, 4. 2  million  tons  for
synthetic detergents and 800 000 tons for soap.   The  raw
material demand will be 450 000 tons for alkylbenzene, 550
000 tons for sodium tripolyphosphate,  180  000  tons  for
aliphatic alcohol, 250 000 tons for alcohol ether, 100 000
tons for  4A  zeolite  and  100  000  tons  for  enzymatic
preparations. Liquid detergent is a focus for  development
in the light industry. The  output  of  liquid  detergents
will reach 600 000 tons in 2000,  accounting  for  30%  of
synthetic detergents, and the output in 2010 will  account
for 40%. Another focus will be laid on the development  of
  functional  varieties  and  special  varieties.   Various
auxiliaries, amendments and additives ( such  as  enzymes,
whiteners, antisettling agents and  emulsifiers)   are  in
short supply  in  the  chemical  sector  and  have  to  be
imported from abroad.
The future development of the detergent  market  will  have
the following 5 features: (1) diversified product varieties.
As the market will be many-sided,  many- leveled  and  big
-volumed, various detergent varieties will be produced  and
put in market. (2)   special  functions.   Detergents  for
textiles will have new special varieties for thin textiles,
worsted wool fabrics, hand-knitted fabrics and crash cloth
.   Cleaning  agents  can  also  have  the   functions   of
disinfecting, sterilization and foreign odor removal. ( 3)
medium-level consumption. The consumption of low-grade and
high-grade detergents will be smaller  than  medium- grade
varieties. The consumption ratio  of  low- grade,   medium
-grade and high-grade detergents will be 2 : 6 :   2.   Low
-grade and medium-grade detergents, especially medium-grade
varieties, will be preferred in rural areas. Medium- grade
and high-grade detergents will be preferred in medium  and
big  cities.   Medium- grade  detergents  will  mainly  be
domestic products, and high-grade detergents  will  mainly
be products imported from abroad or made by joint  venture
enterprises. (4) innovative packing. New packing materials
will be used in the detergent sector. (5) price fluctuation.
The price rise of raw materials will lead to an increasing
production  cost  in  producers  and  a  rising  price  of
detergents.
What seems surprising is that although there is  much  talk
  about  prohibiting  the  use  of  phosphorus-  containing
detergents to reduce pollution to rivers and lakes,   they
still  monopolize  the  market.   Detergents  with  sodium
tripolyphosphate will still  have  a  considerable  market
share in a quite long period of time in future.  The  main
reasons are as follows:
(1) No safe substitute has yet been found to replace sodium
tripolyphosphate as detergent raw material.  The  addition
of  sodium  tripolyphosphate  in  detergents  can  greatly
   enhance   or   improve   the   effectiveness.     Sodium
tripolyphosphate is still  the  best  cost- effective  raw
material. Due to its small side- effect,   low  price  and
strong hardness resistance, sodium tripolyphosphate is  an
  established  special  auxiliary  in  detergents.   It  is
reported that 4A zeolite is  considered  to  be  the  best
substitute. However, compared with sodium tripolyphosphate
, 4A zeolite has poor ion exchange ability and  may  settle
in clothes and make clothes stiff. The washing effect of 4A
zeolite is  not  as  good  either.   Besides,   phosphorus
-containing washing powder is hollow with much foam whereas
phosphorus-free washing powder has  little  foam  and  can
have best effect only after the clothes are soaked for  15
minutes. Technical problems  will  therefore  have  to  be
solved before phosphorus-free detergents are as  effective
as phosphorus-containing varieties.
(2) Only when phosphorus-free detergents are more effective
and less expensive or at least  not  more  expensive  than
phosphorus-containing varieties, can they  be  extensively
disseminated. Some domestic producers  have  acquired  the
technology of phosphorus-free detergents, but they have no
plan to change  their