Production Status and Market Prospect of Soda Ash
                           By Xuan Feng
1. Present status of production
China started to construct soda ash units in 1917 and has already  a  history
of more than 80 years. The output when new China was founded was only 88 000
tons. After repeated activities of potential tapping and  new  construction,
the output in 1966 reached 1 million tons, and there was some export. In the
10 years afterwards, the development speed of soda ash sector was lower than
other sectors, especially lower than soda-consumers  such  as  the  building
material sector and the light industry sector. The  supply  shortage  became
greater and there was more import amount.  China  turned  from  a  soda  ash
exporter to a soda ash importer in 1975. The state  therefore  put  a  large
amount of capital in the mid-80's to develop  soda  ash  production.   Three
large soda ash producers using the ammonia-soda process were constructed  in
Weifang, Tangshan  and  Lianyungang.   Overhaul,   expansion  and  technical
renovation were conducted to existing  producers.   Local  governments  were
encouraged to make investment in constructing new medium and small soda  ash
units. These measures brought both the capacity and output of  soda  ash  in
China to a new high. In later years,   another  three  producers  using  the
ammonia-soda process were constructed in Guangzhou, Jilantai and Harmi.  The
output of soda ash in China held the second place in the world in the  early
90's, only next to the United States,  and  the  technical  level  was  also
remarkably enhanced.
There are more than 60 soda ash producers in China today. The output in  1997
was 7.164 million tons. Table 1 and Table 2 show the output and capacity  of
major soda ash producers in China.
2. Consumption structure and demand
Soda ash in China is mainly used  in  light  industry,   chemical  industry,
building material industry and metallurgical industry. In the light industry
it is used in the production of washing  powder,   sodium  tripolyphosphate,
conventional glass, flasks, bulbs,  sugar,   enamel  and  leather.   In  the
chemical industry it is used in the  production  of  caustic  soda,   sodium
bicarbonate, sodium dichromate, sodium  nitrate,   sodium  nitrite,   sodium
silicate and borax. In the building material industry it is one of  the  key
raw materials for flat glass. In the metallurgical industry it  is  used  in
non-ferrous metals such as alumina, fluorides and nickel. Besides, soda  ash
is also used in sectors  of  kinescopes,   pharmaceuticals,   petroleum  and
national defense.
Table 3 and Table 4 show the output and demand of soda ash in  the  recent  3
years and the import and export of soda ash in the first quarter of 1998.
3. Market projection
The demand of soda ash in the domestic market will have some increase in 1998
. The housing project has been listed as a new economic growth point.   There
will be a growth of 9.2% in 1998 over 1997. The  rapid  development  of  the
real estate sector will bring about an increase in flat glass  demand.   The
implementation of beer bottle standards will lead to an output  increase  in
glass production which will in turn bring about a rising demand of soda ash.
The demand of soda ash will be around 6.60 million tons in 1998,  a  rise  of
100 000 tons and 1.54% over 1997. The planned output is 6.20 million tons, a
rise of 5% over 1997. The import amount will be around 60 000  tons  and  an
inventory of around 320 000 tons will be used. The supply and demand will be
basically balanced. Due to the price and  cost  rise  in  the  international
market, the price of soda ash will be stable and go up a little in 1998.
A series of construction projects will be undertaken in China in the next few
years, and the decoration materials will have a huge market.
(1) construction of state-class projects
There will be many state-class construction projects such as  the  Changjiang
Three Gorges Project, large  airport  projects,   large  water  conservation
projects, large port projects and the Nanning-Kunming Railway Project.  They
have large construction scale and high decoration level.
(2) construction of residential buildings
New residential buildings of 5 billion m2 will be constructed  in  urban  and
rural areas, and retrofitting to  existing  residential  buildings  of  2. 9
billion m2 in urban areas will be needed during the  Ninth  Five- year  Plan
period.
(3) construction of cities
Around 230 new cities and 5 000 new towns will be  constructed  before  2000.
China will further accelerate the construction of new cities and  renovation
of existing cities.
(4) construction of hotels
High-grade hotels with  200  000  rooms  will  be  constructed  before  2000.
Decoration to 400 000 existing rooms (in  more  than  2600  hotels  open  to
foreign guests) will be needed, and overhaul will be done to 210 000 hotels.
(5) construction of public and commercial buildings
The construction scale of public buildings such as office buildings, schools,
gymnasiums and stadiums, cultural  and  recreation  centers  and  commercial
buildings before 2000 will be 120 million m2. Retrofitting will be  done  to
24 million existing commercial facilities and 200  000  existing  recreation
centers.
A huge amount of flat glass will be needed in these projects.   The  key  raw
material for flat glass is soda ash. The production of one ton of flat glass
needs around 0.3 tons of soda ash. The demand of  soda  ash  will  therefore
increase by a big margin in the next few years, and soda ash will have  good
market prospects.
     Table 1   Output of Major Soda Ash Producers in