By Xiao Ming
Vinyl acetate (VAc) is mainly used to produce polyvinyl acetate (PVAc latex), polyvinyl alcohol (PVA), vinyl acetate-ethylene copolymer emulsion (VAE emulsion) or copolymer resin (EVA resin), vinyl acetate-vinyl chloride copolymer (EVC), ethylene-vinyl alcohol copolymer (EVOH), polyacrylonitrile comonomer and acetal resin and other derivatives. It has wide range of applications in many fields such as textile, chemical industry, electrical and electronic, construction, paper making, cigarette, furniture, chemical fiber and bonding, etc.
At present, the industrial production methods of vinyl acetate mainly include acetylene process and ethylene process, and the acetylene process mainly includes the calcium carbide acetylene process and the natural gas acetylene process. Since China is rich in coal resources and relatively insufficient in oil reserves, the production of vinyl acetate mainly adopts the calcium carbide acetylene process. At present, it is only Sinopec Chongqing SVW Chemical Co., Ltd. that adopts the natural gas acetylene process.
Current production situation
In 1963, the former Beijing Organic Chemical Plant (now Sinopec Beijing Eastern Petrochemical Co., Ltd.) introduced technology from a Japanese company, Kuraray, and built China's first vinyl acetate production unit with calcium carbide acetylene process (later changed to ethylene gas phase process). In 2017, the production capacity of China's vinyl acetate reached 3.185 million t/a. Since then, due to the influence of various factors such as corporate economic benefits, upgrading and transformation of traditional industries, adjustment of industrial structure, and environmental protection, China's vinyl acetate industry has experienced a round of reshuffle, selecting the superior and eliminating the inferior. Not only did there not be new production capacity, but a number of acetylene production units have shut down or stopped production for a long time including Jiangxi Jiangwei High-tech Co., Ltd., Yibin Tianyuan Group Co., Ltd., Shijiazhuang Chemical and Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd., Tengzhou Zhongsheng Chemical Co., Ltd., Yunnan Yunwei Co., Ltd., Guizhou Crystal Chemical Co., Ltd., Fujian Fuwei Co., Ltd., Hunan Xiangwei Co., Ltd. and Shanxi Sanwei Group Co., Ltd. and many others. As of the end of October 2022, the total production capacity of vinyl acetate in China was 2.75 million t/a. The situation of China's vinyl acetate manufacturers in 2022 is shown in Table 1.
After years of development, the current production of vinyl acetate in China presents the following characteristics:
1. The production capacity of vinyl acetate in various regions of China has undergone big changes due to new additions and closures. The production capacity in Southwest China, East China, South China and Central China has been reduced to varying degrees due to the shutdown of equipment. Whereas the production capacity in North China and Northwest China has been greatly improved due to the completion and commissioning of new equipment. The distribution of the production capacity of vinyl acetate in major provinces and cities in China in 2022 is shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1 The distribution of the production capacity of vinyl acetate in major provinces and cities in China in 2022
2. A variety of production processes coexist, and the calcium carbide acetylene process still dominates. With the increasingly tense supply of domestic oil and natural gas, the chemical industry is increasingly inclined to coal chemical industry, and in the short term, it is difficult to change the domestic energy consumption pattern which is dominated by coal. Therefore, the production of vinyl acetate by calcium carbide acetylene process will still play a dominant role. In 2022, the production capacity with the calcium carbide acetylene process was 1.58 million t/a, accounting for 57.45% of the total production capacity; the production capacity with the natural gas acetylene process was 500 000 t/a, accounting for 18.18% of the total; the production capacity with the ethylene process was 670 000 t/a, accounting for 24.36% of the total. The production capacity of equipment using the acetylene process is relatively large and has a certain scale effect. Sinopec Chongqing SVW Chemical Co., Ltd. is the largest acetylene production enterprise in China, with a production capacity of 500 000 t/a, accounting for 18.18% of the total production capacity. Celanese (Nanjing) Chemical Co., Ltd. is the largest ethylene process manufacturer with a production capacity of 300 000 t/a, accounting for 10.91% of the total.
3. Most of China's vinyl acetate production units are equipped with downstream production units, and some are also equipped with upstream raw material acetic acid production units. Companies, such as Sinopec Great Wall Energy and Chemical (Ningxia) Co., Ltd., Guangxi Vinylon Group Co., Ltd., Inner Mongolia Shuangxin Environment-Friendly Materials Co., Ltd., Ningxia Dadi Chemical Co., Ltd. and Anhui Wanwei High-tech Materials Co., Ltd., are equipped with downstream polyvinyl alcohol production units; Sinopec Beijing Eastern Petrochemical Organic Chemical Plant is equipped with downstream EVA resin production units; Sinopec Chongqing SVW Chemical Co., Ltd. is equipped with not only the downstream vinyl acetate-ethylene copolymer emulsion and polyvinyl alcohol units, but also the upstream acetic acid unit; Celanese (Nanjing) Chemical Co., Ltd. is equipped with downstream polyvinyl acetate and vinyl acetate-ethylene copolymer emulsion, and upstream acetic acid production unit.
4. Sinopec is the largest manufacturer of vinyl acetate in China, with a production capacity of 1.22 million t/a in 2022, accounting for 44.36% of the total production capacity, followed by Wanwei High-tech Materials Co., Ltd. (including production capacity in Anhui, Inner Mongolia and Guangxi), with a production capacity of 700 000 t/a, accounting for 25.45% of the total production capacity.
5. The supply and demand of China's vinyl acetate industry present a structural surplus. Calcium carbide vinyl acetate is mainly used in the production of polyvinyl alcohol, polyvinyl acetate, VAE emulsion and acrylic fibers, showing a pattern of surplus. Ethylene vinyl acetate is mainly used to supply EVA resin, and the supply is relatively tight. The structural supply-demand contradiction between the tight supply of ethylene-based vinyl acetate and the oversupply of calcium carbide-based vinyl acetate is intertwined.
Import and export analysis
According to customs statistics, from 2017 to 2021, the import volume of vinyl acetate in China presents a development trend of first increasing, then decreasing, and then increasing year by year. Among them, the import volume in 2017 was 229 000 tons, in 2021 was 287 300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.47%. The import volume in the first half of 2022 was 162 200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.36%. From 2017 to 2021, the import unit price of vinyl acetate in China shows a development trend of first increasing, then decreasing year by year, and then increasing again. The import unit price in the first half of 2022 hit US$2 073.93 per ton, a year-on-year increase of 50.79%.
From 2017 to 2021, the export volume of vinyl acetate in China has a development trend of first increasing year by year and then decreasing year by year. Among them, the export volume in 2017 was 154 600 tons, and in 2021 was 99 200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.74%. The export volume in the first half of 2022 was 56 700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22.33%. From 2017 to 2021, the export unit price of vinyl acetate in China shows a development trend of first increasing, then decreasing year by year, and then increasing again. Among them, the export unit price in 2017 was US$776.47 per ton, and US$1 436.62 per ton in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 116.50%. In the first half of 2022, the export unit price was US$1 833.38 per ton, a year-on-year increase of 32.32%. The import sources of China's vinyl acetate are highly concentrated. In 2021, imports were mainly from Taiwan of China and South Korea, with a combined import volume of 272 700 tons, accounting for 94.92% of the total import volume, a year-on-year increase of 39.92%. China's vinyl acetate is mainly exported to five countries: India, Belgium, South Korea, Pakistan and Turkey. The total export volume in 2021 was 81 000 tons, accounting for 81.65% of the total export volume, a year-on-year increase of 62.00%.
Current consumption and future development
The supply and demand of vinyl acetate in China from 2017 to the first half of 2022 are shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2 The supply and demand of vinyl acetate in China from 2017 to the first half of 2022
In 2021, China's vinyl acetate was mainly used for the production of polyvinyl alcohol, polyvinyl acetate, EVA resin, VAE emulsion and acrylic fiber. Among them, polyvinyl alcohol was the largest consumption area, accounting for 59.0% of the total consumption of vinyl acetate, followed by VAE emulsion, accounting for 13.0% of the total consumption.
In the next few years, polyvinyl alcohol, as the most important downstream product of vinyl acetate, has no new equipment put into operation. Its development has entered a stable period and the growth rate of demand for vinyl acetate is limited, so its proportion of consumption will gradually decline, but it is still China's largest consumption field of vinyl acetate. The development of polyvinyl acetate emulsion and acrylic fiber industry is relatively stable, and the demand for vinyl acetate will not change much, and the proportion of consumption will decline. The driving force to promote the development of vinyl acetate in China in the future will be mainly reflected in two fields, EVA resin and VAE emulsion.
1. EVA resin. In recent years, with the vigorous development of China's functional shed film, packaging film, shoe material, hot melt adhesive, wire and cable, and photovoltaic film industries, the production capacity of China's EVA resin has grown rapidly, increasing from 972 000 t/a in 2018 to 1.722 million t/a in 2021. From 2022 to 2026, there will still be a number of enterprises in China planning to build or expand EVA resin production units, mainly Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co., Ltd., Xinjiang Tianli High-tech Petrochemical Co., Ltd. (completed and put into production), Fujian Gulei Petrochemical Co., Ltd. (completed and put into operation), Zhongke Refining and Petrochemical Co., Ltd., Shenhua Ningxia Coal-Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, Jiangsu Sierbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd., Formosa Plastics Group (Ningbo) Co., Ltd., Jinzhou Jingang Petrochemical Co., Ltd., Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum Yulin Coal Chemical Co., Ltd., Anhui Tanxin Technology Co., Ltd., Guangxi Huayi Energy Chemical Co., Ltd., Jieyang Grand Resource Co., Ltd., PetroChina Daqing Petrochemical Co., Ltd., PetroChina Guangxi Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd., National Energy Group Ningxia Coal Industry Co., Ltd. , PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical Co., Ltd., Levima New Material Technology Co., Ltd. and Shandong Yulong Petrochemical Co., Ltd., etc. It is estimated that in 2026, the production capacity of EVA resin in China will exceed 4.5 million t/a. At that time, the demand for ethylene vinyl acetate will continue to increase, and the proportion of consumption will gradually increase.
2. VAE emulsion. In 2021, China's VAE emulsion production capacity reached 826 000 t/a. From 2022 to 2026, there will be a number of enterprises in China planning to build or expand their production units, including Sinopec Chongqing SVW Chemical Co., Ltd., Wacker Chemicals (China) Co., Ltd., Anhui Wanwei High-tech Materials Co., Ltd., Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co., Ltd. and Celanese (Nanjing) Chemical Co., Ltd. and other enterprises. It is estimated that by 2026, the production capacity of VAE emulsion in China will exceed 1.2 million t/a, and the demand for vinyl acetate will be increased accordingly, and the proportion of consumption will gradually increase.
Considering the applications in other fields, it is estimated that by 2026, China's total demand for vinyl acetate will reach 2.650 million to 2.700 million t/a.
Development trends and suggestions
1. Development trend
(1) Production capacity continues to grow, and the overcapacity will be prominent. From 2022 to 2026, China is about to have a number of companies to build or expand vinyl acetate production units, including Jieyang Grand Resource Technology Co., Ltd., Fujian Haiquan Chemical Co., Ltd., Guangxi Huayi Energy Chemical Co., Ltd., Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum Yulin Coal Chemical Co., Ltd., Shandong Yulong Petrochemical Co., Ltd., Anhui Wanwei High-tech Materials Co., Ltd., Celanese (Nanjing) Chemical Co., Ltd., Levima New Materials Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Sierbang Petrochemical Co., Ltd., and Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd. If these units can be implemented as planned, it is estimated that by 2026, the production capacity of vinyl acetate in China will exceed 4.5 million t/a, while the demand at that time will only be 2.65 million to 2.7 million t/a. As a result, the overcapacity will become prominent, competition will become more intense, and the industry will reshuffle.
(2) In the future, the new production units will all adopt the ethylene process because the new or expanded vinyl acetate production units in China are mainly to provide raw materials for EVA resin which has relatively high quality requirements for vinyl acetate raw materials. With the implementation of the national environmental protection policy and carbon neutral policy, the units with calcium carbide acetylene process will maintain the status quo and will be no new development. By 2026, the proportion of the production process of China's vinyl acetate will change, and the ethylene process and acetylene process will be evenly divided, and ethylene process may even surpass the acetylene process.
(3) With the completion and commissioning of new and expanded units, the distribution of the production capacity of China's vinyl acetate will change. The production capacity of East China and South China will increase rapidly, and their proportion will gradually increase, while the proportion of North China and Northwest China that currently play a dominant role will continue to decrease.
(4) The consumption of vinyl acetate in China will still be dominated by polyvinyl alcohol, and EVA resin and VAE emulsion will be the main driving force of consumption growth. Especially the EVA resin, its development will be the key factor to determine the construction of ethylene vinyl acetate production units and product consumption.
(5) With the continuous increase of domestic production capacity of ethylene-based vinyl acetate, the import volume will gradually decrease, and the domestic market price may return to a rational level. Expanding exports will be one of the important ways to alleviate overcapacity in the future.
2. Development suggestions
(1) Enterprises should continue to improve existing technology, actively develop new technology, improve product quality, and realize clean production; develop catalysts with high conversion rate, good selectivity, good hydrothermal stability, long performancelife, and high cost performance; improve fixed bed reactors and their internal components, and focus on the development of the production technology of new ebullatedbed reactor, slurry, and fast fluidized bed reactor. In the future, the focus of the calcium carbide acetylene process is to accelerate the adoption of new technologies such as plasma and dry acetylene process to produce calcium carbide acetylene raw materials, so as to reduce the "three wastes" pollution problems existing in conventional wet processes; the future focus of ethylene process production technology is to continuously perfect and improve the performance of the catalyst, reduce the usage of precious metals, lower the production cost, simplify the production process, and increase the single-pass conversion rate of acetic acid.
(2) Considering there has already been excess production capacity of vinyl acetate in China, and great uncertainty in the development of the main downstream EVA resin which promotes the development of consumption in the future. Therefore, in the future, it should carefully study the source of technology, industrial layout, upstream and downstream conditions, etc., and make second consideration in building or expanding production units, so as not to cause waste of manpower, material and financial resources, and avoid disorderly competition.
(3) On the basis of large-scale production, full consideration should be given to utilizing the advantages of the integrated upstream and downstream industrial chains to vigorously develop the industrial chain, in order to avoid operational risks, maximize benefits, and enhance the ability to resist market risks.
(4) Actively develop new application fields of vinyl acetate to expand consumption fields. At the same time, it shall continue to improve product quality, reduce production costs, and expand exports to alleviate the contradiction of domestic excess capacity and maintain the healthy and steady development of related industries.
