By Tan Jie

During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, although several new or expanded linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) units have been built and put into production in China, due to product homogeneity and technology issue, the products still cannot meet the actual domestic demand, and imports are still needed. There were a large number of imports and a small amount of exports in this period. According to customs statistics, the import and export trade situation of China's LLDPE during the 13th Five-Year Plan period is analyzed, and the development situation in the next few years is estimated.

Imports was increasing year by year with general trade as the main method

During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, China's LLDPE imports have increased year by year. The changes in imports are shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1 Changes in China's LLDPE imports during the 13th Five-Year 

Plan period

During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, Saudi Arabia, Singapore and Thailand have been the top three major sources of China's LLDPE imports. The total import volume from these three countries reached 1.4319 million tons in 2016, accounting for 54.78% of the total imports; the total import volume from these three countries in 2020 reached 2.853 million tons, accounting for 47.20% of the total imports, a decrease of 3.54% compared to the 2.9583 million tons in 2019.

Imports from Canada, Indonesia, Malaysia, especially from India, have all increased year by year. In 2016 the import volume from India was only 10 000 tons, and after 2018 it increased significantly. In 2020 India is the sixth largest source of imports, with an import volume of 302 800 tons, accounting for 5.01% of the total import volume, an increase of 8.61% compared to the 278 800 tons in 2019. The main import source countries or regions of China's LLDPE import volume changes in the 13th Five-Year Plan period are shown in Table 1.

During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, China's LLDPE imports were mainly concentrated in the provinces and municipalities of Guangdong, Fujian, Shanghai, Zhejiang, and Shandong. In 2016 the total import volume reached 1 944 800 tons, accounting for about 74.40% of the total import volume; the total import volume in 2020 reached 4 856 400 tons, accounting for 80.33% of the total import volume, an increase of 17.87% from 4 120 200 tons in 2019.

During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, general trade and processing trade with imported materials have always been the main import trade methods of China's LLDPE. In 2016 the total import volume of these two trade methods reached 2 267 500 tons, accounting for 86.74% of the total import volume. In 2020 the total import volume of these two trade methods reached 5.675 million tons, accounting for 93.88% of the total import volume, an increase of 14.85% compared with the 4.941 million tons in 2019.

During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, general trade has always been the largest import trade method for China's LLDPE, and the import volume has increased year by year. The import volume in 2016 was 1 772 900 tons, accounting for 67.82% of the total import volume; the import volume in 2020 was 5 160 300 tons, accounting for 85.36% of the total import volume, an increase of 16.02% from the 4 447 700 tons in 2019. In the same period, imported materials processing trade has always been the second largest import trade method of China’s LLDPE. In 2016 the import volume was 494 600 tons, accounting for 18.92% of the total import volume; the import volume in 2020 was 515 200 tons, accounting for 8.52% of the total import volume, an increase of 4.33% compared to the 493 800 tons in 2019.

Export: trade method stable and concentrated 

During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, with the exception of 2016, China's LLDPE export volume has not changed much, showing a development trend of declining at first and then rising up. The export volume in 2016 was 61 094.68 tons, and the export volume in 2020 was 37 070.31 tons, an increase of 13.38% compared to the 32 696.42 tons in 2019. Except for 2016, the export unit price has shown a declining development trend in this years. In 2016, the export unit price was US$1 208.10/ton, and in 2020 it was US$1 098.25/ton, a decrease of 2.99% year-on-year. The changes in China's LLDPE export volume during the 13th Five-Year Plan period are shown in Figure 2.

Figure 2 Changes in China's LLDPE export volume during the 13th Five-Year Plan period

During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, China's LLDPE was exported to many countries or regions, with China Hong Kong, Vietnam, and China Taiwan consistently ranking among the top three. In 2016 the total export volume to these three countries or regions reached 39 786.14 tons, accounting for 65.12% of the total export volume. The total export volume in 2020 reached 23 907.82 tons, accounting for 64.49% of the total export volume, an increase of 20.04% compared to the 19 195.82 tons in 2019. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, main destinations of China's LLDPE exports are shown in Table 2.

During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, China's LLDPE exports were mainly concentrated in the three provinces and cities of Guangdong, Shanghai and Shandong. In 2016 the total export volume reached 52 751.88 tons, accounting for 86.34% of the total export volume; the total export volume in 2020 reached 30 574.77 tons, accounting for 82.48% of the total export volume, an increase of  12.26% compared to the 27 235.56 tons in 2019.

During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, China's LLDPE exports are mainly based on general trade and logistics goods trade in special customs supervision areas. The total export volume through the two modes in 2016 reached 58 731.15 tons, accounting for 96.13% of the total export volume; the total via the two modes in 2020 reached 28 722.45 tons, accounting for 77.48% of the total export volume, an increase of 0.74% compared to the 28 701.19 tons in 2019.

During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, trade in logistics goods in special customs supervision areas has always been China's largest LLDPE export trade method, and the export volume has shown a declining development trend. The export volume in 2016 was 50 160.70 tons, accounting for 82.10% of the total export volume; the export volume in 2020 was 16 902.34 tons, accounting for  45.60% of the total export volume, a decrease of 21.53% compared to the 21 539.68 tons in 2019. In the same period, general trade has always been the second largest export trade method. In 2016 the export volume was 8 570.45 tons, accounting for 14.03% of the total export volume; the export volume in 2020 was 11 820.11 tons, accounting for 31.89% of the total export volume, an increase of 65.05% compared to 7 161.51 tons in 2019.

Future development estimation

(1) During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, although China has corporations like Liaoning Baolai Chemical Co., Ltd., Qinghai Damei Coal Industry Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd., Guangdong Zhanjiang Zhongke Petrochemical Co., Ltd., and Zhejiang Ningbo Huatai Shengfu Polymer Materials Co., Ltd., Wanhua Chemical Group Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Satellite Petrochemical Co., Ltd., Sinopec Great Wall Energy Chemical (Guizhou) Co., Ltd., PetroChina Changqing Petrochemical Company, PetroChina Xinjiang Tarim Petrochemical Company, Guangdong Petrochemical Co., Ltd., etc., which planned to build or expand LLDPE production facilities, due to factors such as production technology limitation and insufficient development of new products, and the homogeneity of products, high-end products will still need to be imported in large quantities.

(2) The Middle East will continue to be the main source of China's LLDPE imports in the future due to factors such as low cost of regional raw materials etc. The production capacity of LLDPE in countries such as India, Singapore and Thailand has steadily increased, while the growth rate of domestic consumption is limited. In addition, due to the product variety, stable quality, positive market response, geographical advantages and preferential customs tariff policies, in long-term these countries will remain the main source for China's LLDPE imports. Moreover, the United States will have a large number of devices put into production in the next few years, and a large number of products will be exported, of which China will be its main export destination.

(3) Since Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Shandong and other provinces and cities have always been the main production bases of China's LLDPE downstream products, these provinces and cities will continue to be the main import regions of LLDPE in the future. In addition, general trade and logistics goods in special customs supervision areas will continue to be the main import trade methods in the future.

(4) Under the premise of continuous increase in production capacity, expanding export volume is an important way to ease domestic LLDPE competition. With the continuous improvement of production technology, the enhancement of product quality and the reduction of prices, the export volume of China's LLDPE will increase. However, due to the influence of product varieties and application development, the export volume will not increase greatly.