By Ning Cuijuan and Wu Wenjing, China Chemical Fiber Industry Association

In 2021, China's chemical fiber industry entered the recovery stage of the post-pandemic era, showing a situation of rising prices, increasing profits, and stable inventory as a whole, achieving a good start to the "14th Five-Year Plan". However, it is worth noticing that with the gradual weakening of the low base effect in 2020, the growth momentum of the industry has gradually slowed down, and the growth rate of major economic indicators has shown a clear trend of "starting high then getting low".

The basic situation of the chemical fiber industry in 2021

1. Production situation 

In 2021, China's chemical fiber output was 65.24 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.29%. Among them, except for the output of viscose filament and acrylic fiber, which decreased by 2.42% and 11.87% year-on-year, the output of other major products achieved positive growth, especially polyester filament increased by 10.77% year-on-year, and spandex increased by 10.08% year-on-year. See Table 1 for details.

 Note: Polyester staple fibers contain some recycled polyester staple fibers; polyester filaments contain some stretched products. 

Source: China Chemical Fiber Industry Association.

2. Import and export situation 

In 2021, China's chemical fiber imports totalled 834 500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.92%, but still a decrease of 9.10% compared with 2019. Except for the import volume of polyester staple fiber, which decreased by 12.68% year-on-year, the import volume of other major products increased year-on-year. The export volume of chemical fiber was 5.1991 million tons, an increase of 11.55% year-on-year, which has returned to the level of 2019 before the pandemic. The import and export of main chemical fiber products in 2021 are shown in Table 2.

3. Market situation

In 2021, under the logic of cost support and better demand, the overall price focus of the chemical fiber market returned to the level before the pandemic, as shown in Figures 1 to 5. In terms of polyester, although the market price showed a fluctuating upward trend, the increase was not as high as that of raw materials. Compared with the beginning of the year, the PTA of raw materials increased by 34% at the end of December, and polyester filament (POY) and polyester staple fibers increased by 21% and 17% respectively. At the end of December, compared with the beginning of the year, the CPL of raw materials increased by 22%, and the increase of nylon (POY) was 18%; in terms of viscose staple fiber, the market price reached its peak in early March, and then fell significantly. By the end of December, the price basically remained at RMB12 000/ton. In terms of spandex, the market price has risen the most. The market price of 40D products at the beginning of the year was RMB39 000/ton, and it rose to RMB80 000/ton in early August.

Figure 1 Price trend of polyester and its raw materials in 2020-2021

Figure 2 Price trend of nylon and its raw materials in 2020-2021

Figure 3 Price trend of acrylic fiber and its raw materials in 2020-2021

Figure 4 Price trend of spandex and its raw materials in 2020-2021

Figure 5 Price trend of viscose staple fiber and its raw materials in 2020-2021

4. Operational quality and efficiency 

In 2021, the economic benefits of the chemical fiber industry increased significantly year-on-year. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the operating income of the chemical fiber industry has entered the trillion level for the first time, reaching RMB1 026.283 billion, an increase of 27.83% year-on-year; the total profit achieved was RMB62.89 billion, a year-on-year increase of 149.19%, and the chemical fiber industry has contributed nearly 25% to the entire textile industry profits; the industry loss was 17.3%, 11.42 % lower than that in 2020, and the loss of loss-making companies decreased by 8.84% year-on-year. See Table 3 for details.

      Source: National Bureau of Statistics

Prospect of chemical fiber industry operation in 2022

In the first quarter, the operation of the chemical fiber industry has encountered many difficulties. Affected by the Covid-19, the regional logistics block of the chemical fiber industry, the sluggish downstream demand and the continuing high international oil price, the cost of chemical fiber remained high, and it is difficult to transmit to the downstream, the operating rate of the chemical fiber industry has declined, and the economic benefits have shrunk significantly.

Looking forward to the whole year, the operating pressure and risks of the chemical fiber industry will increase. From the perspective of the supply side, with the improvement of industrial integration, in order to digest the growth of refining and chemical production capacity, downstream supporting projects continue to expand significantly, so raw materials and chemical fibers will still be in the period of capacity expansion; from the perspective of the end market, China's textile and apparel market expectations are lowered, and domestic sales may maintain a low-speed and steady growth overall. Under the influence of "weak demand, high base, and order outflow", the growth rate of external demand will gradually decline. Therefore, the supply and demand pattern of the chemical fiber industry is expected to weaken in 2022. At the same time, the "dual control" of energy consumption may be carrying out for a long time, and the overall operating rate of the industry is expected to be basically maintained or slightly lower. The wide fluctuation of crude oil and the uncertainty of the trend will increase the risk of chemical fiber market. In addition, the high base in 2021 will have an inhibitory effect on the growth rate of various indicators of the chemical fiber industry in 2022.