By Jiang Xinmin and Sun Ruihao
Burgeoning hydrogen energy industry
As well as aiming to halt the rise of carbon emissions by 2030, China strives for carbon neutrality by 2060 via taking measures such as prioritizing developing hydrogen energy that is abundant, easy to be obtained, environmentally friendly, efficient and sustainable.
Annual production value of China’s hydrogen energy industry is forecast to reach RMB1 trillion by 2025, and around RMB12 trillion by 2050, when domestic demand for hydrogen energy may grow to nearly 60 million tons, and hydrogen energy may account for at least 10% of China's terminal energy system, instead of 5% like it did in 2030 – progresses that will help the nation reduce emissions of CO2 by some 700 million tons, according to forecasts from the China Hydrogen Alliance.
Hydrogen energy consumed in the transportation field is forecast to reach 24.58 million tons in 2050, equivalent to 83.57 million tons of crude oil or 100 billion cubic meters of natural gas. Industrial enterprises may consume 33.7 million tons of hydrogen energy, and consumers in other fields, building for example, will consume 1.1 million tons, both in 2050, equivalent to 170 million tons of standard coal.
1. Efforts to propel hydrogen energy industry
Local governments in more than 20 provinces and over 40 prefecture-level cities rolled out hydrogen development plans. In detail, Beijing issued a plan to construct hydrogen energy technology application pilot and demonstration projects, and in Shanghai, hydrogen energy was categorized as a new characteristic industry. Guangdong is actively constructing hydrogen fuel cell industrial parks, Guangzhou-Shenzhen high-temperature fuel cell and system R&D and manufacturing base, and Shenzhen Nanshan hydrogen fuel cell reactor R&D demonstration area. Zhejiang Jinhua municipal government provided subsidies for hydrogen refueling stations. Five departments including the Ministry of Finance jointly issued incentive fund policies, replacing previous subsidy policies, to promote utilization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. In addition, many COEs (central government-owned enterprises) and listed companies made plans involving production, storage, refueling and utilization of hydrogen energy. Leading firms cooperated to research new hydrogen energy technologies.
2. Gradually decreasing hydrogen energy utilization costs
Improvements in new hydrogen catalysts, materials used to store hydrogen, new hydrogen fuel cell catalysts, etc. gradually reduced costs to utilize hydrogen energy. Wind power generating capacity rose by 71.67 million kW, and solar power generating capacity by 48.2 million kW, both in 2020. PV power generating costs were RMB0.29-0.8/kWh in 2019, which may decrease to RMB0.22-0.462/kWh in 2025, when onshore wind power generating costs are forecast to decline to RMB0.245-0.512/kWh from around RMB0.315-0.565/kWh in 2019. Hence a promising future of renewable energy-based water electrolysis hydrogen production.
Cost of a hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicle is expected to be RMB1 million in 2025, likely to plummet to RMB500 000 in 2030 and RMB300 000 in 2050 (cost of a passenger vehicle, RMB300 000 in 2025, RMB200 000 in 2030 and RMB100 000 in 2050).
3. Faster pace in achieving industrialization of hydrogen energy
Breakthroughs in key technologies and strong policy support speeded up commercialization of hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (HFCVs), with the number of registered HFCVs reaching 7 352 at the end of 2020. The number of HFCVs will reach 50 000 in the areas of private use and public service by 2025, soar to one million in the fields of private use and large commercial vehicles, and skyrocket to five million by 2050.
Hydrogen refueling stations are important for utilizing hydrogen energy. At the end of 2020, the number of domestic existing hydrogen refueling stations was 124, which will shot up to 1 000 in 2025, 5 000 in 2035 and 10 000 in 2050.
Obstacles to fast development of hydrogen energy industry
1. High costs
Take hydrogen production as an example. Existing hydrogen production technologies mainly rely on fossil energies like coal and natural gas, resulting in severe environmental protection problems. Technologies to utilize nuclear energy or biomass are not mature, and utilizing renewable energy sources (e.g. solar and wind power) has to deal with issues such as low efficiency and high costs. In addition, hydrogen prices are higher than oil prices. A bus requires around eight kilograms of hydrogen per every 100 kilometers. This will cost RMB480-560 calculated based on an average hydrogen price of RMB60-70/kg. But for a diesel-powered bus, RMB220 is enough.
As for hydrogen storage, enterprises have yet solved imbalance between safety and costs. Further, the scale of HFCV market and the number of hydrogen refueling stations are both insufficient. Costs of galvanic piles and air compressors remain high. Other difficulties mainly include core components (e.g. proton exchange membrane, membrane electrode, etc.) unable to be made by domestic firms, and low production efficiency of hydrogen fuel cells.
2. Weakness regarding technologies, utilization of R&D achievements and industry standards
Most hydrogen related technologies are mastered by transnational enterprises from the US, Japan, etc. In China, R&D achievements and patents are generally owned by universities and research institutes, which lack of cooperation with large companies and therefore fail to fully utilize the achievements.
China issued Technical Safety Regulation for Gaseous Hydrogen Use in 1985, detailing technical requirements during use, replacement, storage, compression and charging (filling) and discharge procedures of gaseous hydrogen, emergency circumstances, etc. China has initially established a hydrogen energy standard system, including more than 21 standards related to test methods and technical conditions of products, safe utilization, design of hydrogen and oxygen stations, production and storage of hydrogen energy, etc. However, for a burgeoning hydrogen energy industry, these are far from enough.
