Vehicle Fuel Cell Market to March Ahead with Multi-channels and Opportunities
Year:2019 ISSUE:8
COLUMN:ENERGY
Click:212    DateTime:Apr.30,2019



By Yan Feng


Developing routes

   Political measures harboring new-energy automobile industry

   The period of 2009-2014 was regarded as a phase of promotion and exploration for China's new-energy automobile industry. In 2009, the central government was focused on demonstrating and promoting energy-saving and new-energy vehicles, and formed three types of new-energy vehicle power systems, namely, hybrid, pure electric and fuel cells. From 2010 to 2013, the government determined a major strategy in which the transformation of the automobile industry would be mainly led by pure electric power. At the same time, new-energy demonstration and promotion penetrated alm st every city in the country. In 2014, the government reviewed and approved a plan for exempting new-energy vehicles from purchase taxes, and this heightened consumer affordability of new-energy vehicles.

   Relevant policies gradually attach importance to fuel cell development from 2014

   In recent years, China has paid more and more attention to the development and utilization of hydrogen energy, and has gradually included hydrogen energy development in relevant development strategies and industrial policies. The fuel cell industry - as its main carrier - has also drawn great attention from the central government, which has instituted a series of policies regarding planning, subsidies and specific implementation.

   From 2017 to 2018, hydrogen energy and fuel cells were the key developing fields according to the new energy-related policies released by major economically-developed Chinese provinces and cities. Key tasks, development plans, and key indicators of hydrogen energy and fuel cells involved in the new energy policies across various provinces and cities are measurable, and hence the fuel cell path has become clearer.


Market opportunities 

   Along the hydrogen fuel cell industry chain, the upstream segment covers the making, transportation and storage of hydrogen, and the loading of hydrogen into the hydrogen fuel cell system at hydrogen refueling stations as well. The midstream segment covers the production of key components such as stack, and the assembling of stack and accessories that can form a hydrogen fuel cell system. The downstream segment covers three application fields, which are transportation, portable power supply, and fixed power supply.

   1. Upstream hydrogen energy and infrastructures

   At present, there are a small number of hydrogen producers in China, with most located in eastern coastal areas and few in inland regions. Jiangsu, Shanghai, Guangdong and Beijing see production clusters, with the total number of hydrogen producers accounting for around 60%. The major hydrogen production enterprises and regional distribution are listed in Table 1 as below.

   Table 1   Major domestic hydrogen producers and regional distribution

Region

Producer

Jiangsu

Chunwang Industrial Gases Co.


Jiangsu Pesticide Chemical Plant


Jiangsu Jinlong Group Co., Ltd.


Jiangsu Lianyungang Chemical Plant


Jiangsu Meilan Chemical Group Co., Ltd.


Nantong Pesticide Plant


Sinopec Yangtze Petrochemical Co., Ltd.


Wuxi Chemical Group Co., Ltd.

Shanghai

Shanghai BOC Gas Co., Ltd.


Shanghai Chlor-alkali Chemical Co., Ltd.


Shanghai Zhongyuan Chemical Group Co., Ltd.


Shanghai Baosteel Group Baoqing Co., Ltd.

Guangdong

Guangdong Haotian Chemical Group Co., Ltd.

Liaoning

PetroChina Fushun Petrochemical Co., Ltd.


Fushun Organic Chemical Plant

Beijing

Beijing Plastic Co., Ltd.

Tianjin

Sinopec Tianjin Petrochemical Co., Ltd.

Zhejiang

Zhejiang Ningbo Fertilizer Plant

Henan

Puyang Chlor Alkali Plant

Hunan

Sinopec Baling Petrochemical Co., Ltd

Chongqing

Chongqing Tianyuan Chemical Co., Ltd

Jiangxi

Chunwang Industrial Gas Co., Ltd

Jilin

PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical Co., Ltd

Sichuan

Sichuan Zigong Honghe Chemical Plant

Yunnan

Yunnan Kunming Electro-Chemical Plant

Xinjiang

Xinjiang Chlor Alkali Plant

   At present, high-pressure-stored hydrogen is most popular in China. Automobiles mostly take metal-lined fiber-wound hydrogen storage bottles (type III) as the hydrogen storage container – at 35 MPa today and likely to reach 70 MPa in the future. As of December 2018, there were 16 domestic hydrogen refueling stations, including 9 fixed stations, 7 mobile stations, with 2 old stations dismantled. There are 30 hydropower stations under construction, mostly located in the central and southern regions and coastal areas, especially in Shanghai and Guangzhou.

   2. Four core materials in the midstream

   One of the main obstacles getting in the way of the commercialization of proton exchange membrane fuel cells is the high price of precious metal catalysts. So far, the platinum loading volume has dropped significantly, and ultra-low platinum or platinum-free (PGM-free) has become the focus of research in the future.

   The bipolar plate materials of hydrogen fuel cells consist of graphite, metal and composite materials. The three materials have their own advantages, and among them the composite bipolar plate will become trendy, as it not only has corrosion resistance as excellent as graphite materials but also strength as high as metals. However, the current production cost, conductivity and mechanical properties are yet to be improved.

   The proton exchange membrane is the core material of fuel cells, and its performance directly affects the stability and durability of fuel cells. So far, the domestic proton exchange membrane market has achieved some technical progress and innovations. For example, the conductivity of the DF series made by Dongyue Group is beyond that of the Nafion series. Many research institutes have also gained certain achievements in the field of composite membranes. Among them, the proton conductivity of Tianjin University’s composite membrane is better than that of Nafion’s pure membrane; the fuel cell proton exchange membrane developed by Shanghai Jiao Tong University has a service life of more than 6 000 hours on the premise of maintaining high performance.

   The technology of carbon paper as a fuel cell electrode diffuse layer is monopolized by three foreign manufacturers – Japan-based Toray, Canada-based Ballard and Germany-based SGL. Domestic technology is not yet mature. There are many institutions and enterprises that are researching diffusion carbon paper, such as Dalian Institute of Chemical Technology and China University of Science and Technology, but it will take time before technical problems are overcome. 

   3. Downstream applications

   Demand for fuel cells increased significantly in 2018; the market pattern of car companies has not yet formed

   In 2018, the domestic demand for vehicle hydrogen fuel cells was 50.91 MW, an increase of 54.27% year on year. The average power of fuel cells was 33.34 kW in 2018, versus 25.94 kW in 2017. In terms of types of vehicles that use hydrogen fuel cells, new-energy passenger vehicles accounted for about 93% in 2018, and on-purpose hydrogen fuel cell vehicles accounted for about 7%.

   At present, the major domestic hydrogen fuel cell vehicle manufacturers include Fei Chi, Futian, Yutong, Dongfeng, Youngman Group, and Zhongzhi. From January to September 2018, the installed capacity of Fei Chi and Futian was relatively large, accounting for 74% of the market total, followed by Yutong, Dongfeng and Youngman Group. However, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles put into use is still generally small, so the market structure has not been formed.

   Domestic policies initiate demand growth at the infant stage, with a quantified development layout for the coming decade 

   According to Energy Saving and Technology Roadmap for New Energy Vehicles, issued officially in 2016, the central government specified the plan for development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. It clearly stated that by 2020, the number of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles for public service in specific regions should reach 5 000; by 2025, the number of vehicles for urban private vehicles and public services will increase to 50 000. 

   At the same time, the regional governments of Shanghai, Wuhan, and Jiangsu have issued corresponding policies to set up specific plans for the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. By 2020, Shanghai will build two demonstration zones for hydrogen fuel cell passenger vehicles, with a total of 3 000 vehicles; Wuhan will hold 2 000-3 000 fuel cell buses, logistics vehicles and commuter vehicles; and Suzhou will have 800 hydrogen fuel vehicles for demonstration. From the perspective of fuel cell policy planning, the launching of new products will be further accelerated, and the pace of marketization is expected to improve, which will bring huge market opportunities for project investors, engineering and designing companies, and technology and equipment suppliers in the industry.

   Performance of domestic vehicle fuel cells still needs to be improved to meet requirements for passenger vehicles

   At present, the domestic vehicle fuel cell market is largely applied to commercial vehicles. This is mainly because the power and service life of domestic fuel cells can basically meet local needs. In terms of volumetric power ratio, however, there is a gap between domestic fuel cells and advanced international ones.

   The power volume density ratio of fuel cells used in China is usually 1.1~1.5 kW/L. For example, the HYMOD 300 vehicle fuel cell stack independently developed by Xinyuan Power has a power volume ratio of 1.13 kW/L currently, and the product is mainly used in Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (SAIC) Roewe 750 and SAIC Chase FCV80. This indicator is still smaller compared to the fuel cell stacks used in foreign passenger vehicles.


Future development

   1. The trade volume of fuel cell vehicles will continue to increase year by year

   In 2018, the trade volume of domestic fuel cell vehicles reached 1 527, an increase of 20.05% year on year. With a rapid decline of subsidies for pure electric commercial vehicles, it is expected that domestic fuel cell commercial vehicles will maintain fast growth in the next few years. The trade volumes of domestic and foreign fuel cell vehicles from 2015 to 2019E are shown in Figure 1.


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   Figure 1  Domestic and foreign fuel cell vehicle shipments and forecasts from 2015 to 2019

   2. Domestic fuel cell vehicles will be widely promoted and applied in 2030

   In October 2016, Energy Saving and Technology Roadmap for New Energy Vehicles, initiated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China, was officially released. The Roadmap of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is shown as below. First, put 10 000 demonstration fuel cell vehicles – featured with low-power fuel cells and large-capacity power batteries - into use for public service in specific areas in near term. Secondly, put 100 000 fuel cell vehicles – featured with a mixture of high-power fuel cell and medium-capacity power battery – into use in relatively big areas in the middle term. Thirdly, put 1 million private passenger vehicles and big-sized commercial vehicles – featured with full-power fuel cells – into use in the long term. In a longer run, the government will take priority of hydrogen energy supply system to build up and expand fuel cell automobile market in China. 

   In 2016, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued Energy Technology Revolution Innovation Action Plan (2016-2030), in which they clarified the targets and routes of hydrogen energy and fuel cell technological innovation. The focus of technological innovation will be on hydrogen production, storage and transportation, hydrogen refueling stations, advanced fuel cells, and fuel cell distributed power generation. The overall target is to see demonstration operation of fuel cells and hydrogen energy by 2020, large-scale promotion and application in 2030, and wide application in 2050.

   3. Vehicle fuel cell costs not to exceed US$8 000 in future

   With gradually improving hydrogen fuel cell technologies, the amount of platinum in the 100kW-stack has decreased. The scale of demonstration applications has further increased and fuel cells have been produced in batches, so the cost of vehicle fuel cells will decrease year by year. It is predicted that the cost of fuel cell cars will be less than US$30 000 by 2020 if the annual production is at 200 000 vehicles. Besides, with subsidies factored in, the price of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be lower than the price of other types of existing new-energy vehicles, so fuel cell vehicles will have strong market competitiveness in the future.