China’s Acrylonitrile Market
Year:2015 ISSUE:10
COLUMN:ORGANICS
Click:251 DateTime:May.22,2015
China’s Acrylonitrile Market
By Cheng Lihong, China National Chemical Economic and Technical Development Center
Supply and demand
1. Production
As of the end of 2014, China’s capacity to make acrylonitrile had reached 1.419 million t/a, the year’s output was expected to be 1.2 million tons, and the overall operating rate was 85%. China has nine acrylonitrile producers, most production units are in East China and Northeast China, and the combined capacity to produce acrylonitrile in these two regions is 1.304 million t/a, accounting for 92.1% of the national total. China’s major acrylonitrile producers in 2014 are listed in table 1.
The demand for acrylonitrile downstream products, ABS resin and acrylonitrile-butadiene rubber, is brisk, and many enterprises have constructed or expanded units recently. China’s new/planned acrylonitrile projects in the future are shown in table 2.
Shandong Keluer Chemicals Co., Ltd is a 55:45 joint venture between Sinopec and Wanda Group. According to the cooperation plan, both firms plan to invest RMB3.9 billion to construct a new 260 000 t/a acrylonitrile complex unit as well as matching projects. The first phase of that, with an investment of RMB1.572 billion, includes a 130 000 t/a acrylonitrile unit and a 20 300 t/a ammonium sulfate unit, etc. Construction on the first phase was started in October 2013, and the new unit met the conditions for intermediate handing-over on October 10, 2014. If all planned projects are put into operation on schedule, it is expected that China’s capacity to make acrylonitrile will exceed 2.0 million t/a by 2015, and reach 2.789 million t/a by 2018. China’s demand for acrylonitrile will reach 2.63 million tons, probably resulting in the oversupply. During 2014-2016, China’s capacity to produce acrylonitrile will increase rapidly, and the capacity growth will be mainly concentrated in East China and Shandong province.
Table 1 China’s major acrylonitrile producers in 2014
Region Producer Capacity (kt/a)
East China Shanghai Secco Petrochemical Co., Ltd 260
Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co., Ltd 130
Sinopec Anqing Petrochemical Co., Ltd 210
Subtotal 600
Shandong province Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical Co., Ltd 80
Subtotal 80
Northeast China PetroChina Fushun Petrochemical Co., Ltd 92
PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical Co., Ltd 452
PetroChina Daqing Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd 80
PetroChina Daqing Petrochemical Co., Ltd 80
Subtotal 704
Northwest China PetroChina Lanzhou Petrochemical Co., Ltd 35
Subtotal 35
Total 1 419
Table 2 China’s new/planned acrylonitrile projects
Producer Capacity (kt/a) Remarks
Shandong Keluer Chemicals Co., Ltd 260
Shandong Haili Chemical Co., Ltd 130 The project was completed in 2014
Shanghai Secco Petrochemical Co., Ltd 260 The project was completed in 2014
Jiangsu Sailboat Petrochemical Co., Ltd 260 The project will be completed in 2015
Guangxi Keyuan?New Materials Co., Ltd 200 Construction on the project will be started in 2015
INEOS and Bohai Chemical Industry Group Corporation 260 The project is planned to be completed in 2016
2. Demand
Acrylonitrile has been in short supply in China; self-sufficiency has remained below 70%, so China needs to import a large quantity each year to meet the demand. With the rapid development of downstream products like ABS resin and acrylamide in China, the consumption of acrylonitrile increased year-on-year and reached 1.752 million tons in 2013, with an average annual consumption growth of 7.9% during 2008-2013. See Figure 1 for details.
China's mix of acrylonitrile consumption was around 36.8% for acrylic fiber, around 36% for ABS/SAN (styrene-acrylonitrile copolymer) resin, 16.9% for acrylamide, 2.7% for acrylonitrile-butadiene rubber and 7.6% for others. In 2013, China’s capacity to produce acrylic fiber reached 755 000 t/a, and the operating rate was over 90%. The domestic capacity to make ABS reached 3.638 million t/a in 2013, however, affected by the slowdown of demand growth as well as the startup of new units, the operating rate of units remained at a lower level of around 60%. In 2013, China’s capacity to make polyacrylamide was 700 000 t/a, and the enterprises were mainly distributed in East China, North China, and Central and South China. However, except for Beijing Hengju Chemical Group Corporation (100 000 t/a) and SNF (China) Flocculant Co., Ltd (100 000 t/a), the scale of a unit in most enterprises is below 50 000 t/a. In recent years, China’s acrylonitrile-butadiene rubber has developed rapidly. During 2009-2013, China’s capacity to produce acrylonitrile-butadiene rubber expanded from 95 000 t/a to 205 000 t/a – a growth of 116%.
3. Import
In 2013, China’s import volume of acrylonitrile was 548 000 tons, and the importing regions were mainly in East China’s Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces. In the first ten months of 2014, China’s import volume of acrylonitrile was 428 000 tons. Figure 2,3 shows China’s acrylonitrile import in recent years.
Market trend
1. Market price
In 2012, affected by the European debt crisis, the price of acrylonitrile declined, and the average annual price dropped to RMB14 252/t. With the concentrated startup of planned acrylonitrile projects, China’s supply gap of acrylonitrile will be reduced gradually. It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile will fluctuate at RMB11 000-16 000/t.
2. Development prospects
In general, an acrylonitrile project in China has a good market prospect. Despite a slowdown of demand growth for downstream acrylic fibers, the capacity to make products such as ABS/SAN resin, acrylamide and acrylonitrile-butadiene rubber will still grow rapidly, promoting the demand for raw material acrylonitrile. It is expected that the growth of demand in the acrylonitrile sector will remain at 5% during 2014-2018.